Maximising plant and animal population persistence in an increasingly stochastic world

Project Information

MaxPersist

Grant agreement ID: 101032484

DOI

10.3030/101032484

Project closed

EC signature date 24 March 2021

Start date 15 February 2022

End date 15 April 2024

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 224 933,76

EU contribution

€ 224 933,76

Coordinated by

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MaxPersist (Maximising plant and animal population persistence in an increasingly stochastic world)

Reporting period: 2022-02-15 to 2024-02-14

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

MaxPersist focuses on examining how human-induced changes can impact plant and animal species, potentially forcing them out of their optimal life-history patterns. The project has introduced innovative theoretical approaches to comprehend how natural populations worldwide may adapt their life-history strategies in response to changing environmental conditions. By studying hundreds of species, MaxPersist aims to predict how these populations will persist amidst growing environmental unpredictability.

The specific objectives of MaxPersist are aligned with three key hypotheses:

Hypothesis H1: Increased environmental unpredictability leads to the development of new life-history strategies.
Hypothesis H2: Higher environmental variability alters the correlations between vital rates.
Hypothesis H3: Elevated environmental stochasticity weakens the influence of other ecological and evolutionary factors on life-history strategies' viability.
The project's objectives include:

Objective 1.1: Investigating the long-term demographic viability offered by more than two demographic strategies.

Theoretical Advances: We developed models showcasing diverse demographic strategies beyond buffering and lability.
Collaborative Efforts: I established an international working group to explore these concepts.
We introduced the S-elasticity measure to assess population fitness impacts.
Objective 1.2: Comparing demographic strategies across populations of the same species in varying environments.

Data Analysis: We used demographic data from a desert plant to reveal differences across populations.
We introduced Integrated Demographic Profiles (IDPs) to interpret fitness effects comprehensively.
Objectives 2.1 and 2.2: Studying how environmental stochasticity influences vital rate correlations.

We explored selection forces on vital rate correlations and their dynamics and are currently preparing manuscripts on the dynamics of these correlations.
Objectives 3.1 and 3.2: Assessing how environmental stochasticity impacts ecological and evolutionary forces on life-history strategies.

We are using Phylogenetic Comparative Methods to quantify these impacts, we analyzed the dynamics of fitness effects under different environmental conditions.
The project has resulted in published articles and ongoing manuscripts targeting esteemed journals, such as the Journal of Animal Ecology and American Naturalist. By exploring the joint effects of various factors on demographic strategies, MaxPersist contributes valuable insights into species' adaptability in dynamic environments.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

OBJECTIVE 1.1: Explored if more than two demographic strategies can sustain populations amid changing environmental stochasticity.
Key Achievements:
1. Developed new theoretical models showcasing diverse demographic strategies beyond common ones like buffering and lability.
2. Formed an international working group including Prof. Shripad Tuljapurkar and two post-doctoral researchers.
3. Introduced the S-elasticity measure to quantify second-order effects on population fitness.

OBJECTIVE 1.2: Compared demographic strategies across populations of the same species in varied environments.
Highlights:
1. Analyzed data from desert plant Cryptantha flava, showcasing significant demographic differences.
2. Introduced Integrated Demographic Profiles (IDPs) for interpreting fitness effects comprehensively.
3. Presented findings at conferences and preparing a manuscript for Journal of Animal Ecology.

OBJECTIVE 2.1 & 2.2: Investigated how higher environmental stochasticity influences vital rate correlations.
Work Done:
- Explored selection forces on vital rate correlations using theoretical advances.
- Revealed dynamic patterns in selection forces, preparing manuscripts for submission.

OBJECTIVE 3.1 & 3.2: Studied how environmental stochasticity impacts ecological and evolutionary forces on life-history strategies.
Progress:
- Used Phylogenetic Comparative Methods to analyze predictors of life-history strategies.
- Advanced methodological approaches and species selection for upcoming manuscript submission.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Fellow MK has integrated into the SalGo Population Ecology Team led by host RS-G, becoming an expert in plant and animal demography through three training objectives:

a. **Analytical Skills (TO1)**: MK enhanced her knowledge in demography and programming through regular meetings and workshops at Oxford on Mathematical Demography and Advanced R Programming, primarily achieved through Work Package 1 (WP STRATEGIES).

b. **Theoretical Knowledge (TO2)**: She deepened her understanding of stochastic demography by collaborating with experts, including Prof. Shripad Tuljapurkar from Stanford. TO2 was largely accomplished through WP STRATEGIES and WP PRESSURES.

c. **Project Management, High-Impact Publications, and Career Progression (TO3)**: By completing a Time and Project Management course and over 100 additional courses from Oxford’s Career Service, MK improved her organizational skills. Regular discussions with Prof. RSG helped her secure a permanent academic position in Slovenia to pursue research in stochastic demography—an unexplored area in her country. TO3 was mainly achieved through WP PREDICTORS and WP STRATEGIES.

MK's training was thorough, facilitating effective knowledge transfer that supported her theoretical advancements and bolstered her confidence as an independent researcher. The host institution meticulously handled the scientific, financial, and administrative aspects of the project. Notably, the fellow faced personal health and family-related challenges during the course of the project; in response, the Oxford University offices, staff, SalGo team members, and especially the host himself offered tremendous support and guidance.

She participated in departmental meetings and seminars, connecting with leaders in biology. MK attended two international conferences:
1. Evolutionary Demography Society 8th Annual Meeting in Paris (March 2023)
2. British Ecological Society annual meeting in Belfast (December 2023)

Additionally, she engaged in outreach activities, such as Researchers' Night in Slovenia (https://www.nocmoc.eu/) and a Science Oxford event (https://scienceoxford.com/) to explain scientific concepts to children.

The project met its expected impacts by achieving:
- Significant scientific advancements as outlined in point 1.1 Objectives.
- MK securing a permanent position in her desired country.
- Enhanced potential for professional maturity and independence, leading to improved career prospects.

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