Towards the prevention of rebound effects within complex socio-technical systems

Project Information

REBOUNDLESS

Grant agreement ID: 101043931

DOI

10.3030/101043931

EC signature date 10 May 2022

Start date 1 January 2023

End date 31 December 2027

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 999 478,00

EU contribution

€ 1 999 478,00

Coordinated by

DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - REBOUNDLESS (Towards the prevention of rebound effects within complex socio-technical systems)

Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2025-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Never before has there been a stronger global focus on solving the pressing sustainability challenges of our time, but society’s most well-intended efforts to solve them have not yet achieved the expected gains due to rebound effects. Rebound effects are negative consequences of interventions driven by behavioural and systemic changes that offset approximately 47% of the potential sustainability gains.

While rebound effects are widely acknowledged, fundamental scientific gaps hamper their prevention. REBOUNDLESS aims to develop the reboundless design theory, a paradigm shift in design science that will establish the scientific knowledge for preventing rebound effects by:

• Explaining behavioural rebound mechanisms and socio-technical rebound pathways triggered by efficiency, effectiveness, and sufficiency strategies.
• Modelling and simulating the magnitude of rebound effects arising from design decisions, towards the identification of key leverage points in the early phases of design.
• Enabling the design of rebound-resilient systems by means of reboundless design strategies at the product, product/service-systems and socio-technical systems levels.

The reboundless design theory will provide novel methodologies, simulation models, and strategies for the design of reboundless interventions (i.e. products, product/service-systems, and socio-technical systems that are resilient to rebound effects).

The project focuses on four societal needs (housing, nutrition, mobility, and consumables), which account for three-quarters of the global carbon footprint.

Building on the strong foundation of systems theory, REBOUNDLESS bridges the interdisciplinary gap in the interplay of design for sustainability and rebound effects, qualitative and quantitative models, engineering and social sciences, theory and practice.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

REBOUNDLESS has significantly advanced the state-of-the-art understanding of rebound effects, with significant breakthroughts. The main achievements to date can be summarised as follows:
BB1 - EXPLAIN the behavioural mechanisms and pathways of rebound effects
• Systematic review of 1413 empirical studies mapping rebound effects, including the identification of specific rebound events and estimates of rebound magnitudes across social needs (incl. mobility, housing, nutrition and mobility)
• Expansion of state-of-the-art with novel behavioural rebound mechanisms, in addition to a systematic consolidation of existing behavioural rebound mechanisms at the individual-level
• Uncovering of rebound pathways explaining systemic-level rebound effects through the innovative practice-theoretical framework, supported by real-world case studies.
• Clear research protocols established to enhance the replicability of rebound effect studies, including a structured approach for applying a practice-theoretical perspective.
BB2 - MODEL the generic structures of rebound effects
• Comprehensive analysis of the dynamic complexity of rebound effects and the importance of the focus on rebound mechanisms
• Catalogue of 26 rebound mechanisms represented in Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) enabled the generalisation of rebound mechanisms
• Conceptualisation of "rebound molecules of structure," key stock-and-flow elements that define the behaviour of rebound mechanisms over time.
• Uncovering of the interplay between rebound triggers and drivers that enable sustainability transitions (i.e. leads to higher adoption) but also result in rebound effects
• Actionable tool linking 24 circular business model patterns with rebound mechanisms, resulting in 117 pathways whereby circular strategies can inadvertently drive rebound effects.
BB3 - SIMULATE rebound effects
• Modularity principles for configuring simulation models through the recombination of generic structures (from BB2), supporting a more agile, replicable and scalable approach to modelling.
• Elicitation of systematic principles for modularity in system design models through a building-block-based modelling approach (BBMA), demonstrated through a first proof of concept of a simulation model for case-specific investigation of rebound effects.
• Establishment of a systematic process for iterative testing, validation, and calibration of simulation models, incorporating feedback loop dominance analysis to refine model accuracy.
BB4 - PREVENT rebound effects by design
• Positioning of Design Science as a key leverage point for the prevention of rebound effects triggered by efficiency-effectiveness-sufficiency design strategies.
• Preliminary procedure for identifying leverage points and devising design strategies based on the structural analysis of qualitative simulation models.
• Behavioural "nudging" tool to prevent rebound effects early in the design process, systematically addressing behavioural triggers and mechanisms.
It is also worth mentioning the broader societal impact of REBOUNDLESS achieved through the established collaborations with industrial manufacturing companies and policy-related stakeholders that can drive the prevention of rebound effects in both industry and policymaking.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

(1) Conceptual understanding of psychological rebound mechanisms (i.e. behavioural rebound, negative spillover, and crowding-out mechanisms), an under-explored area of rebound research.

(2) Systematisation of behavioural mechanisms driving secondary benefits (i.e. induced behavioural or systemic changes triggered by sustainability-oriented interventions that strengthen, rather than offset, potential sustainability gains).

(3) Identification of novel rebound pathways that expands the understanding of rebound effects as emergent outcomes of the performance of everyday life, through the development of a practice-theoretical framework and its application to empirical studies.

(4) Cracking the code of rebound effects by making explicit how consumption factors (i.e. factors that stimulate additional consumption or production activities) are both relevant to the success of sustainability-oriented interventions and the occurrence of rebound effects.

(5) Proof of concept of a building-block-based modelling approach (BBMA) was operationalised and applied in a model structure investigating dynamics of a product/service-system in mobility. Advancements in the BBMA approach have the potential of revolutionising the field of System Dynamics by enabling an agile, repeatable, and reliable process for assembling building blocks towards the development of valid case-specific simulation models

(6) Proof of concept of an approach for exploring the interplay between systems thinking and design thinking, enabling the integration of leverage points into a design ideation process for the prevention of rebound effects in the early phases of design.

(7) Strategic collaborations in both public policy and corporate decision-making arenas towards broad societal impact, including the policy brief ‘Towards the prevention of rebound effects in Europe and beyond: insights for policymaking’ [forthcoming]

While further research is required for (5) and (6), the demonstration of (4) in a real-world setting would enhance the understanding of the tool’s usability and usefulness to support the identification of potential rebound mechanisms triggered by sustainability interventions. The policy brief developed within (7) has the potential to result in activities towards enhancing the applicability of the research results for policy making.

Overall project structure