Testing for the universal mind using probabilistic inference

Project Information

UNI PROB

Grant agreement ID: 101043986

DOI

10.3030/101043986

EC signature date 17 October 2022

Start date 1 May 2023

End date 30 April 2028

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 122 306,65

EU contribution

€ 2 051 921,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - UNI PROB (Testing for the universal mind using probabilistic inference)

Reporting period: 2023-05-01 to 2025-10-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The goal of this project is to find evidence of a universal mind and discover if key human cognitive biases are adaptive. We aim to do this by comparing the core features and biases of qualitative probabilistic inferences across humans, kea, and rats.
To achieve this, my objectives are to test if these three species show similar information processing patterns when solving innovative, non-verbal, probabilistic inference tasks. These tasks will explore four core aspects of probabilistic inference:
• Making statistical inferences from populations to samples: We will investigate how each species draws conclusions about individual instances based on broader statistical information.
• Updating and combining probabilistic information: We will examine their ability to adjust beliefs and integrate new data when faced with changing probabilities.
• Integrating different knowledge types to make domain-general statistical inferences: This involves assessing their capacity to combine various forms of knowledge to make broad statistical judgments.
• Using perceptions of randomness to make probabilistic predictions: We will study how they utilize their understanding of randomness to anticipate future probabilistic events.
To achieve this, I am leading an interdisciplinary team, comprising of myself as the Principal Investigator (PI), two post-doctoral researchers, three PhD students and a technician.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

As per our work plan, after 2 years we aimed to have completed WP 1 and Tasks 2.1 and 2.2 of WP2.
We are making good progress on Task 1.3 (the rat work)
• Have exciting initial results from Task 2.1 with testing still on going
• Have moved Task 2.2 to Year 5 of the grant
• Have exciting initial results from Task 2.3 with testing still on going
• Have already begun piloting for Task 2.4
• Have completed Task 3.1
• Have begun piloting for Task 3.4

Work Package 1 Basic Probabilistic Integration
• Task 1.2 Weber’s law: We have run our Weber’s law study with both humans and kea and are now preparing the manuscript for publication.
• Task 1.3 Population to sample inferences in rats. We are currently running task 1.3.1 in an extended form that tests the predictions of Weber’s law with rats on a frequency discrimination task.
WP2 Updating and Combining Probabilities
• Task 2.1 We have updated this experimental design to incorporate Task 3.1. We are currently running a new version of this task to in both kea parrots and humans.
• Task 2.2 We plan to focus on this task in Year 5 of the grant, in place of Task 2.4.
• Task 2.3 We updated this experimental design using Task 3.1.
• Task 2.4 We updated this experimental design and have begun piloting experiments on humans (ongoing).

WP3 Domain-general integration
• Task 3.1 We have run this task and adapted it for use in Work Package 2.
• Tasks 3.2 Work has not yet started on these tasks.
• Task 3.3 Work has not yet started on these tasks.
• Task 3.4 We have begun piloting on humans for this task (ongoing)
• Task 3.5 Work has not yet started on these tasks.

MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR

Collecting the Weber´s law data (WP1.2) which is being prepared for publication and has exciting results.
Finding exciting evidence of probabilistic updating and finding exciting evidence of base rate neglect in our ongoing experiments.
Creating the Rat Village.
Setting up our research program.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

We are still having work on going, but there are potential researchs to be done. So far the results on WP 2.1 and 2.3 - probabilistic updating and base rate neglect have the potential to make a significant breakthrough in our research field, however further work is required to confirm these findings.