Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development

Project Information

ANTICIPATE

Grant agreement ID: 101055176

DOI

10.3030/101055176

EC signature date 15 November 2022

Start date 1 December 2022

End date 30 November 2027

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 499 155,00

EU contribution

€ 2 499 155,00

Coordinated by

INSTITUTT FOR FREDSFORSKNING
Norway

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Data Management Plan (1)

Data Managment Plan

Data management plan

Publications

Other (9)

Forecasting Electoral Violence

Author(s): David Randahl, Maxine Leis, Tim Gåsste, Hanne Fjelde, Havard Hegre, Staffan I. Lindberg, Steven Wilson
Published in: SSRN Electronic Journal, 2024, ISSN 1556-5068
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.5006841

Bin-conditional conformal predicition of fatalities from armed conflict

Author(s): David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard Hegre
Published in: arXiv Methodology (stat.ME), 2024
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2410.14507

Policy Insight 135: Harnessing AI: How to develop and integrate automated prediction systems for humanitarian anticipatory action

Author(s): Humanitarian Forecast Working Group
Published in: Centre for Economic Policy Research, Issue 135, 2024
Publisher: CEPR Press

Deep active learning for data mining from conflict text corpora

Author(s): Mihai Croicu
Published in: arXiv Computers and Society (cs.CY), 2024
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2402.01577

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D'Orazio, Cornelius
Published in: arXiv Applications (stat.AP), 2024
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2407.11045

The urgency of conflict prevention – A macroeconommic perspective

Author(s): Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, and Raphael A Espinoza
Published in: IMF Working Papers, 2024
Publisher: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
DOI: 10.5089/9798400293832.001

From Newswire to Nexus: Using text-based actor embeddings and transformer networks to forecast conflict dynamics

Author(s): Mihai Croicu and Simon Polichinel von der Maase
Published in: arXiv Computers and Society (cs.CY), 2025
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2501.03928

"""If you only have a hammer"": optimal dynamic prevention policy"

Author(s): Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Alessandro Ruggieri, and Ben Seimon
Published in: BSE Working Papers, Issue 1465, 2024
Publisher: Barcelona School of Economics

The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a structured expert elicitation

Author(s): Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre, and Mert Can Yilmaz
Published in: arXiv Methodology (stat.ME), 2024
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2409.08779

Peer reviewed articles (3)

Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models

Author(s): David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
Published in: International Studies Quarterly, Issue 68, 2024, ISSN 0020-8833
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae137

Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas

Author(s): Sandra García-Uribe, Hannes Mueller, Carlos Sanz
Published in: The Journal of Economic History, Issue 84, 2024, ISSN 0022-0507
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/S0022050724000044

The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Ghassan Baliki, Tilman Brück, Stefan Döring, Anneli Eriksson, Hanne Fjelde, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Jonathan Hall, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Maxine R. Leis, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Ida Rudolfsen, Ashok Swain, Alexa Timlick, Phaidon T.B. Vassiliou, Johan von Schreeb, Nina von Uexkull, Håvard Hegre
Published in: World Development, Issue 187, 2025, ISSN 0305-750X
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806