Deciphering the lay ethics of terminal risks: local terminal risks as PRoxiEs For Existential Risks

Project Information

PREFER

Grant agreement ID: 101055305

DOI

10.3030/101055305

EC signature date 28 July 2022

Start date 1 October 2022

End date 30 September 2027

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 485 314,00

EU contribution

€ 2 485 314,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITE DE VERSAILLES SAINT-QUENTIN EN YVELINES
France

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PREFER (Deciphering the lay ethics of terminal risks: local terminal risks as PRoxiEs For Existential Risks)

Reporting period: 2022-10-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Humanity may one day face catastrophes so severe they threaten its very existence. Some of these threats, like the strike of a meteorite, originate beyond human control. Others, such as nuclear winter or climate change, are consequences of human activity.

When the stakes are this high, fundamental questions arise: What values compel humanity to act? Where do these values come from? How should we prioritize the risks that demand attention? What criteria should guide the selection of solutions when facing unimaginable disaster?

The PREFER project explores these questions by focusing on how people respond to extreme risks at a local level. While existential risks affect all of humanity, PREFER studies smaller-scale, localized, yet severe, threats to gain insights into the challenges posed by global existential risks. The project engages with diverse communities in Vietnam, Colombia, and Greenland, examining how they perceive and navigate risks that jeopardize their existence.

PREFER aims to bridge theory and real-world experience, providing valuable insights into how people conceptualize and confront risks to their humanity and to humanity’s collective future.

The project is guided by six key objectives:

1) Develop a robust understanding of "local terminal risks" as a way to study global existential threats.
2) Create methods to observe and measure how individuals and communities experience these risks.
3) Collect narratives—stories and perspectives—from affected communities to understand their lived experiences.
4) Analyze these narratives to uncover ethical and philosophical perspectives on risk and resilience.
5) Build a framework for understanding the values people hold when faced with existential threats.
6) Examine how different cultural value systems might interact, align, or conflict in addressing global risks.

Central to PREFER is its transdisciplinary research approach. This means the project’s scientists work not only for but also with the communities they study, ensuring that research respects and incorporates the knowledge, values, and lived experiences of its participants. This approach reflects an ethical commitment to collaboration, making research a shared endeavor that benefits everyone involved.

By focusing on localized risks and engaging directly with communities, PREFER seeks to uncover the deep connections between local and global challenges, offering new ways to understand and address the existential threats facing humanity.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During its first two years, the PREFER team has made significant progress on theoretical, methodological, and implementation fronts.
A core aim of PREFER is to refine the conceptual connection between local and global risks. The project has addressed key challenges, including scale, by understanding how the global nature of existential risks intensifies feelings of dread; time and permanence, by exploring how cultures view long-term impacts versus cyclical or impermanent events; and cultural diversity, by examining how the concept of "humanity" varies across cultures. By incorporating non-Western worldviews and analyzing their disruption during "cosmological episodes," which are moments when collective understandings of the world are shaken, the project offers a richer and more inclusive perspective on existential risks. Early findings suggest that local catastrophes, such as wars or genocides, are often seen as permanent scars on humanity, diminishing its long-term potential.
To ensure its work resonates with communities and respects ethical standards, PREFER has introduced key methodological innovations. The narrative-based interventions focus on "positive stories" that highlight uplifting narratives about overcoming challenges. This approach has helped build trust and foster engagement while balancing optimism with realism, ensuring difficult realities are not overlooked. Additionally, ethical frameworks are being developed collaboratively with participants to respect local norms and values. This co-produced approach has been tested across diverse settings and shows potential as a model for ethical research in sensitive contexts.
The team has begun collecting public discourses through public outlets and collecting narratives in Vietnam, Colombia, and Greenland. Despite some delays, especially in Greenland due to hiring challenges, the groundwork for meaningful engagement is now in place. These narratives will, at later stages of the project, shed light on how people from diverse cultural backgrounds perceive and respond to existential risks.
Despite challenges such as shifting partnerships and navigating with care and respect local ethical requirements, PREFER has achieved critical milestones. These include establishing partnerships with new communities in Vietnam and Colombia and building a team of young scholars from the countries where the research is conducted. These accomplishments lay a strong foundation for the project’s next steps.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The PREFER project is making progress in understanding and addressing existential risks by focusing on local terminal risks—threats that, while limited in scope, offer insights into global challenges. These efforts have led to three major advances in the course of the project's first two years:
First, we are broadening the concept of local terminal risk to include not only environmental threats but also the cultural and social upheavals caused by modernity and global market forces. For example, the loss of cultural identity or connection to a place can be as devastating as physical disasters like land erosion. This shift builds on the idea of "mourning immaterial, pan-generational loss" and highlights how changes like colonial legacies and economic reforms deeply affect communities. Understanding these dynamics could transform how we think about the risks humanity faces as a whole.
Second, we are exploring how people make sense of terminal situations by drawing on their local cosmologies—worldviews that shape their ethics and values. For example, people’s reactions to crises often rely on their understanding of what gives life meaning in their culture. This perspective challenges the idea that modern ways of thinking are required to engage with existential risks. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of including diverse cultural viewpoints to better understand how communities cope with and respond to profound challenges.
Finally, we are investigating the concept of humanity as a shared experience. This includes examining how being human is tied to both individual dignity and collective identity. When groups or individuals are dehumanized—stripped of their humanity—it not only disempowers them but also erodes the shared sense of humanity that binds us together. By linking these processes of humanization and dehumanization to existential risks, we hope to uncover new ways to address the profound challenges that threaten humanity’s future.
Each of these advances moves us closer to a deeper understanding of how local risks can inform global solutions. By focusing on the experiences and values of diverse communities, we aim to make meaningful contributions to the broader study of existential risks.

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