Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action

Project Information

IAM COMPACT

Grant agreement ID: 101056306

DOI

10.3030/101056306

Project closed

EC signature date 19 July 2022

Start date 1 September 2022

End date 31 August 2025

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 4 461 325,75

EU contribution

€ 4 461 323,00

Coordinated by

ETHNICON METSOVION POLYTECHNION
Greece

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - IAM COMPACT (Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action)

Reporting period: 2024-03-01 to 2025-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

-Efforts not on track to meeting the Paris goals; international cooperation still limited
-Modellers insufficiently including non-scientists, despite need for wide societal support
-LMICs not “owning” their NDC commitments (modelling often outsourced)
-Modelling predominantly on supply side, despite potential in demand and behaviour
-IAMs mostly designed for long-term horizons and ill-equipped for deep uncertainties or structural changes
-Climate action typically assessed outside the sustainability spectrum
-Interdisciplinary transitions research agenda needed for feasibility & desirability
-Mitigation pathways often assessed against unrealistic baselines

Objectives included:
O1|Supporting the assessment of global climate progress, needs, and feasibility, and the preparation of national policies for the post-2030 period, toward mid-century climate neutrality
O2|Placing climate action in a holistic sustainable development framework
O3|Enhancing the robustness of scientific outputs and incorporating social, political, behaviour, and innovation insights in models
O4|Co-creating policy-relevant modelling via an international policy response mechanism
O5|Establishing an integration process that co-produces science and policy prescriptions by adding layers of tools, models, methods, and bodies of knowledge
O6|Opening the ‘black box’ of scientific inputs, processes and outputs
O7|Engaging in the deep/extreme uncertainty space
O8|Boosting international cooperation, partnership, and capacity

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

(a) Listening
Policy Response Mechanism (PRM) established
Database of 5,759 stakeholders (> 500 academia, 500 business, 500 industry, 500 civil society, 250 modellers, 200 social scientists, 2000 policymakers, 100 LMICs)
24 Policy Steering Groups (62 policymakers) to co-define questions
13 Core Working Groups (192 stakeholders) to co-design scenarios
14 policy briefs

(b) Exchanging
Open science & model linking protocols, DMP (Argos), Zenodo community
IAM PARIS: 62 models, 23 documentation videos, 2 tools (standardised outputs, vetting), 10 workspaces

(c) Modelling
Policy catalogue, model coordination, data/policy harmonisation, broad scenario protocols
Global & regional mitigation analyses (EU, India, China, USA), sectoral & sub-national deep dives in Europe

(d) Expanding
Open database & model inter-comparison on COVID-19 recovery packages
Microsimulation & macroeconomic modelling of distributional impacts
IAMs stress-tested for extremes, expert interviews
Representation of behaviour change & social innovation; co-created narratives
Assessment framework for inter-comparisons across dimensions (SDGs, social equity, innovation)

(e) Explaining
Several policy events, 23 videos, 16 infographics, 20 media articles, 32 newsletters/press releases, 61 papers, 63 conferences, 36 open datasets, 1 Special Issue, 1 editorial, 14 policy briefs, 1 technical brief, submission of scenarios & policy brief to EU SABCC
Mapping of global drivers, barriers, policies for sectoral decarbonisation
Capacity development (workshops, courses, material) in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Kenya

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

O1:
-2 reports on global mitigation & regional (EU, India, China, US) long-term targets
-2 reports on EU sectoral decarbonisation (steel, raw materials, capacity & flexibility requirements, small-scale PV uptake) & multi-model deep dive into Greece’s new NECP
-2 reports on spatially explicit analysis in Europe (health & equality, security, resilience, flexibility, costs)
-1 paper, 2 conferences, 1 brief on tackling the energy crisis in the EU
-1 paper, 1 conference on the climate assessment workflow
-1 inter-comparison paper on global and regional mitigation (& feasibility)
-1 inter-comparison paper, 2 conferences on EU net zero
-1 viewpoint on scenario database challenges
-1 perspective on IPCC scenario database curation
-1 review of coal transitions
-1 paper on transformative changes of NDCs & LTTs
-1 paper on effects of asymmetric mitigation policies on energy trade from a North American viewpoint
-1 commentary on principles for robust CDR policy in the G7
-1 high-profile paper on costs of capital to finance the energy transition in LMICs
-1 commentary on the attainability of 1.5°C
-1 special issue on constructing futures through modelling
-1 paper on energy & socioeconomic transformation in a decade of IPCC scenarios
-1 essay on the role of AI in climate change scientific assessments
-6 conferences
-3 policy briefs

O2:
-Global database & inter-comparison of green recovery
-1 model integration tool for distributional analysis, piloted for the EU ETD
-2 reports, 1 book chapter on distributional impacts of climate policy in Greece
-1 comment on short-term health co-benefits of climate policy
-1 inter-comparison paper on SDG impacts of EU decarbonisation
-1 paper on carbon pricing and system reliability toward universal electricity access in Africa
-1 paper on environmental & market implications of steel decarbonisation for the EU
-12 conferences

O3:
-2 harmonisation processes, 1 relevant database for modelling exercises
-2 analyses of underrepresented disruptive innovations/technologies (cleantech diffusion, CDR, interest rates, firms’ credit/financial risk, financing cost, empirical analysis informing the choice of slack in MGA)
-1 report on global drivers, barriers, policies considering political, social, economic, structural, technological, individual factors across sectors
-1 data structure definition for validation of model outputs
-1 set of diagnostic scenarios & indicators
-1 paper on cleantech upscale uncertainty
-1 opinion piece on principles for assessing new tech opportunities
-1 viewpoint on CDR controversies
-1 analysis mitigation scenario variations
-1 comment on science-based targets and inequitable/unambitious efforts
-1 viewpoint on climate futures using deep learning
-7 conferences

O4:
-1 policy brief on our PRM
-1 co-created modelling paper for Greece
-1 timely viewpoint on Loss & Damage
-1 paper, 1 conference on co-created transformative policy mixes in 5 countries
-1 special issue on stakeholder-driven modelling
-1 paper on a framework for participatory modelling

O5:
-1 new tool for validity/vetting checks of model data
-1 analysis on model typologies & characterisation
-1 literature review of policy types from a modelling angle
-1 paper, 1 tool to process GCAM outputs in the IAMC template
-1 conference

O6:
-IAM PARIS upgrade & operation
-1 analysis of state-of-art open science practices
-32 newsletters/press releases
-16 synergy events
-21 media articles
-61 papers, 63 conferences

O7:
-1 literature review, expert interviews, assessment of the impact of tech limitations on EU decarbonisation; IAM framework for extremes
-1 paper on low-carbon innovations
-1 perspective on resilience risks of technologies
-1 paper on mitigation pathways course correction
-1 paper on the optimal speed of cleantech diffusion

O8:
-1 training & teaching kit for modelling.
-1 comment on climate education
-1 paper on training course for MUSE

IAM COMPACT project website homepage (screenshot)