PALEOclimate modelling of Small Islands in the Mediterranean and possible impacts on arthropod habitats

Project Information

PALEOSIM

Grant agreement ID: 101062427

DOI

10.3030/101062427

Project closed

EC signature date 21 July 2022

Start date 1 August 2022

End date 31 January 2025

Funded under

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 219 628,40

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITA TA MALTA
Malta

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PALEOSIM (PALEOclimate modelling of Small Islands in the Mediterranean and possible impacts on arthropod habitats)

Reporting period: 2022-08-01 to 2025-01-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

PALEOSIM (PALEOclimate modelling of Small Islands in the Mediterranean and possible impacts on arthropod habitats) focuses on the climate impacts on arthropod habitats of small islands using the Regional Climate Model (RCM), RegCM5. Arthropods play vital roles in the ecosystem (e.g. pollinators, detritivores, and others), and thus can act as indicators of ecosystem integrity. In recent decades, the anthropogenic impact on ecosystems, through climate change has been devastating, especially in vulnerable regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its numerous small islands. Advances in RCMs have resulted in extensive climate studies of the region at 12.5 km resolution; however, this is a coarse resolution for many small islands. Convection Permitting (CP) RCM simulations allows models to resolve islands such as the Circum-Sicilian Islands (CSI), and hence study variations in arthropod habitats induced by climate change.

By combining the CP and Paleoclimate modes, the RegCM5 can produce km-scale simulations between 21,000 BCE and 2,100 CE. This span of time is characterised by slow climate and geomorphological variation in the beginning, and rapid anthropogenic climate change at the end. The aim of these paleoclimate simulations is to shed light on the role humanity has played in the ecological destabilisation of many of these small islands. This investigation improves our understanding of past climate changes on the CSI, and showcases the potential of small islands RCM simulations. The project provides new insight into the expected habitat changes arthropods may experience in the future, and helps to mitigate the destruction of these fragile ecosystems.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

A key innovation of PALEOSIM is the development of a climate suitability index that integrates climatological and ecological data to assess the impact of climate variability on terrestrial arthropod habitats in the Mediterranean region. This index utilizes high-resolution data from RCMs to construct a climatology of species' preferred habitats based on historically observed locations. By analyzing how climate factors influence the ecological niches of arthropods, the index provides insights into potential shifts in species distribution and survival under changing climate conditions. This approach offers a straightforward and rapid means to evaluate the resilience and vulnerability of arthropod populations, thereby informing conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on biodiversity. ​

A reduced Mediterranean domain was tested with RegCM5 for use in CP simulations, focusing on the Circum-Sicilian islands. The simulations uncovered significant issues when downscaling GCM data, which, while leading to improvements in the RCM and its future applications, also impacted the project's progress. As a result, the downscaling effort shifted toward evaluating ERA5 reanalysis products and the CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR GCM, specifically for 10-year periods covering historical and SSP370 climate scenarios. These scenarios correspond to Global Warming Levels of 1.5 2, and 3°C. Unfortunately, the simulations were disrupted due to the severe flooding in Bologna in October 2024, which affected the CINECA supercomputing facilities. Despite this setback, collaboration between UM and ICTP continues to ensure the completion of this critical aspect of the study.

PALEOSIM has successfully conducted high-resolution regional climate simulations using the RegCM5 model with the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH core. These simulations span multiple periods at scales down to 3 km resolution, allowing for detailed analysis of extreme weather events and climate patterns. The project has refined methodologies for downscaling paleoclimate simulations, ensuring compatibility with large-scale climate models such as MPI-ESM1-2-LR from the PMIP4 framework. Significant progress has also been made in the development of Köppen-Geiger-based land-use mapping techniques, to drive the paleoclimate simulation. This methodological advancement may be setting a precedent for future high-resolution paleoclimate studies, demonstrating the feasibility and benefits of CP RCM simulations in paleoclimate research.

The research aligns with EU climate resilience strategies, offering valuable data for environmental conservation, cultural heritage preservation, and long-term climate risk assessment.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

PALEOSIM has advanced regional paleoclimate modeling by integrating convection-permitting simulations at kilometer-scale resolutions for the Mediterranean region. Testing with RegCM5 revealed key challenges in downscaling for this region, ranging from the selection of domain boundaries to model configuration complexities. These insights contribute to refining methodologies for high-resolution simulations in the region, improving the accuracy and applicability of such models.

Additionally, the development of climate-driven land-use mapping represents a novel contribution to paleoclimate studies, providing a dynamic methodology for reconstructing past landscapes based on climatic conditions. This technique offers new perspectives for understanding past environmental shifts and their impact on both ecosystems and human societies. These advances open new possibilities for interdisciplinary applications, including archaeology, environmental conservation, and climate impact assessments. Future research could expand the approach to other regions and integrate additional environmental variables, enhancing the applicability of the methodology beyond the Mediterranean.

The results also highlight the importance of further investment in CP RCM simulations for both paleoclimate and future climate projections. PALEOSIM’s methodologies provide a scalable framework for analyzing climate changes in other regions of interest, including areas with rich archaeological records where climate reconstructions can inform historical studies. The innovations achieved through PALEOSIM lay the groundwork for broader scientific applications and policy-relevant assessments of climate change impacts.