A key innovation of PALEOSIM is the development of a climate suitability index that integrates climatological and ecological data to assess the impact of climate variability on terrestrial arthropod habitats in the Mediterranean region. This index utilizes high-resolution data from RCMs to construct a climatology of species' preferred habitats based on historically observed locations. By analyzing how climate factors influence the ecological niches of arthropods, the index provides insights into potential shifts in species distribution and survival under changing climate conditions. This approach offers a straightforward and rapid means to evaluate the resilience and vulnerability of arthropod populations, thereby informing conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on biodiversity.
A reduced Mediterranean domain was tested with RegCM5 for use in CP simulations, focusing on the Circum-Sicilian islands. The simulations uncovered significant issues when downscaling GCM data, which, while leading to improvements in the RCM and its future applications, also impacted the project's progress. As a result, the downscaling effort shifted toward evaluating ERA5 reanalysis products and the CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR GCM, specifically for 10-year periods covering historical and SSP370 climate scenarios. These scenarios correspond to Global Warming Levels of 1.5 2, and 3°C. Unfortunately, the simulations were disrupted due to the severe flooding in Bologna in October 2024, which affected the CINECA supercomputing facilities. Despite this setback, collaboration between UM and ICTP continues to ensure the completion of this critical aspect of the study.
PALEOSIM has successfully conducted high-resolution regional climate simulations using the RegCM5 model with the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH core. These simulations span multiple periods at scales down to 3 km resolution, allowing for detailed analysis of extreme weather events and climate patterns. The project has refined methodologies for downscaling paleoclimate simulations, ensuring compatibility with large-scale climate models such as MPI-ESM1-2-LR from the PMIP4 framework. Significant progress has also been made in the development of Köppen-Geiger-based land-use mapping techniques, to drive the paleoclimate simulation. This methodological advancement may be setting a precedent for future high-resolution paleoclimate studies, demonstrating the feasibility and benefits of CP RCM simulations in paleoclimate research.
The research aligns with EU climate resilience strategies, offering valuable data for environmental conservation, cultural heritage preservation, and long-term climate risk assessment.
