Drivers of spatiotemporal variation in temperature-related morbidity and mortality in Europe: analysing early adaptation to climate change

Project Information

TEMP-MOMO

Grant agreement ID: 101065876

DOI

10.3030/101065876

Project closed

EC signature date 13 July 2022

Start date 1 September 2022

End date 30 September 2024

Funded under

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 195 914,88

Coordinated by

INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA SANTE ET DE LA RECHERCHE MEDICALE
France

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TEMP-MOMO (Drivers of spatiotemporal variation in temperature-related morbidity and mortality in Europe: analysing early adaptation to climate change)

Reporting period: 2022-09-01 to 2024-09-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Recent report by the European Committee of the Regions (2020) about the challenges in adaptation to climate change concluded that there is still insufficient understanding of the impacts of climate change on human health throughout the European Union (EU), particularly at local level, and that this gap in knowledge continues to hinder adaptation efforts of the local and regional authorities (LRA). The report also highlighted the need for easily and freely accessible data and tools to support climate change impact and vulnerability assessments, which would be valuable for LRA policymakers and practitioners.

The MSCA project TEMP-MOMO came to fill these critical knowledge gaps by assessing the recent evolution in morbidity and mortality risk and burden associated with ambient temperatures and its main demographic and socioeconomic drivers in France and Spain, using a multi-scale spatial analysis approach. As such, TEMP-MOMO is tightly aligned with the mission “Adaptation to climate change including societal transformation” of the 2021-2027 Horizon Europe framework program, which contributes to the transition to a climate prepared and resilient Europe.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The project performed cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses on temperature-related morbidity and mortality at different spatial scales in France and Spain. While the cross-sectional approach offered a snapshot of the temperature-health associations for a given period, the longitudinal one extended beyond a single time period, informing about population (mal)adaptation to ambient temperatures over time. The project also analysed and quantified the contribution of community-level factors to differences in vulnerability to ambient temperatures both in space and time.

The project provided by far the most comprehensive assessment on the association of ambient temperature with cause-specific morbidity and mortality, including the added effect of heat/cold waves, temperature variability, and compound hot and humid or high pollution events. Moreover, it allowed the identification of the community-level factors that increase/reduce vulnerability to hot and cold temperatures, which key for the design of climate change health adaption policies.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The results of the project showed that the health risks were almost wholly dominated by daily mean temperature, while the added effect of heat waves, temperature variability (ie, diurnal temperature range [DTR] and inter-day change in temperature), and compound hot and humid or high pollution events was limited to a reduced number of diseases. It was also found that the health risks varied widely depending on cause-specific disease and individual characteristics such as sex (women were at higher risk from heat), age (very young children and the elderly), or education (less educated). Moreover, the project also documented a temporal reduction in risk of mortality due to hot and cold temperatures in Spain and France, suggesting that climate warming in the last decades has been paralleled by a progressive adaptation of the Spanish and French populations to ambient temperatures.

Regarding the role of socioeconomic factors, the project found that the Spanish regions with higher heating prevalence were less vulnerable to cold-related mortality. However, the prevalence of heating in Spanish households showed large spatial disparities: the warmest regions in Spain (ie, in the south of the country), which are also the poorer, had the lowest prevalence of houses with central heating. Reducing this geographical inequality could save thousands of premature deaths from cold every year, particularly among the elderly with low socioeconomic level, and thus increase the overall life span. In the small-area studies performed in France, the spatial differences in vulnerability to heat were not explained by demographic/socioeconomic factors, but rather by the degree of urbanisation or overexposure to heat (Urban Heat Island) and air pollution. People living in cities were at a higher risk of dying from heat, although urban greening mitigated this risk in the city big cities like Paris. Moreover, by analysing the role of a wide range of relevant contextual factors in shaping the time trends in heat- and cold-related mortality risk, the project found that air conditioning and heating are effective societal adaptive measures to non-optimum ambient temperatures.

Change in heat-related mortality risk by contextual factors in Paris city