Project description
Prediction tool for political conflict prevention
Large-scale political violence kills thousands of people every month worldwide. It is also the reason why many more are forced to flee their home and homeland. For this reason, predicting political violence would be useful for first responders and policymakers. The prediction system ViEWS – a political violence early warning system, developed by Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute, Oslo, is an unprecedented tool for research on high-quality forecasts of political violence. The ERC-funded ViEWS (2022-2024) project will design a plan to explore the system's societal potential and financial viability. The project will describe how to maximise the system's functionality for conflict prevention and mitigation, preserve and strengthen transparency and open-access publication strategies.
Objective
This application presents a plan to explore the societal potential and financial viability of ViEWS – a political Violence Early Warning
System, which has been developed as part of the ERC-AdG project no. 694640 at the Department of Peace and Conflict
Research, Uppsala University, and Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). It is a rigorous and transparent prediction system of unprecedented scope and performance that is positioned at the forefront of research on theoretical and methodological foundations for high-quality forecasts of political violence.
The proposal describes how the research from the AdG project, as well as research conducted as extensions to the AdG project in collaboration with the UNHCR, UN ESCWA, and UK FCDO, can be applied to maximise the usefulness of the forecasting system for individuals and organisations that are dedicated to conflict prevention and mitigation, while simultaneously strengthening the system’s focus on transparency and open-access publication strategies.
Planned activities include measures to solidify ViEWS’ reputation as a high-quality open-source early-warning system, and
strategies to transform ViEWS into a financially viable and self-sustaining entity. The proposal also details concerted efforts to clarify our IPR position and strategy, incorporate recent user-specified developments into the early-warning system built under the AdG project, apply a user-centric approach to evaluate the predictive performance of the forecasting system (as a complement to current evaluation metrics), and a number of activities aimed at assessing, validating, and maximising the usefulness of the project's outcomes to the full target audience.
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
-
HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
See all projects funded under this programme
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC-POC - HORIZON ERC Proof of Concept Grants
See all projects funded under this funding scheme
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2022-POC1
See all projects funded under this callHost institution
Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
0186 Oslo
Norway
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.