Project description
Quantifying the weather effects of extratropical dry, cold air flowing into the tropics
Tropical weather cannot be forecast more than a day in advance, leaving almost half of humanity vulnerable to nature’s fury. Tropical weather is largely governed by deep clouds that are significantly impacted by flows from outside of the tropics (extratropical flows); the effects are poorly understood. The ERCl-funded ExTrA project will study how extratropical dry, cold air flowing into the tropics dramatically modifies the atmosphere and air-sea interactions. The team will use a new global Lagrangian identification approach to study this extratropical-tropical interaction for the first time, supported by state-of-the-art data, diagnostic tools, and multiscale modelling.
Objective
An immediate, critical challenge facing humanity is the impact of weather extremes under a changing climate across the globe. Accurate weather forecasts and reliable climate projections rely on understanding the complex interactions between the atmospheric circulation and the water cycle. Largely governed by deep clouds, tropical weather cannot be forecasted more than a day in advance, leaving almost half of humanity living in these regions even more vulnerable. Although extratropical (outside the tropics) flows can drastically affect tropical clouds and precipitation, this effect has not been systematically quantified or understood. The novelty of this proposal is in asking a new question: How do extratropical dynamics influence the (sub)tropics?
We will build on our recent work and paradigm-challenging preliminary results to study how extratropical dry, cold air intrusions into the tropics dramatically modify its atmosphere and air-sea interaction. We will use a new global Lagrangian identification approach to study this extratropical-tropical interaction for the first time, and uniquely combine state-of-the-art data from multiple sources, diagnostic tools, and multi-scale modelling. We will quantify the global spatiotemporal occurrence, variability and trends of these events (WP1); understand their underlying dynamics and precursors in midlatitudes and their impact on the water cycle (WP2); and assess their suitability as predictors of high-impact tropical weather (WP3). A dedicated international observational flight campaign will allow us to synergistically study the extratropics’ impact on the tropics (WP4).
Our findings will advance not only the meteorological community but also the oceanographic, cloud physics and climate dynamics scientific communities, by providing a unified, global view of the interacting large-scale atmospheric dynamics, clouds and precipitation through their common weather timescales, paving the way for timely, accurate weather warnings.
Fields of science
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Topic(s)
Funding Scheme
ERC - Support for frontier research (ERC)Host institution
7610001 Rehovot
Israel