Affective Polarization and Democratic Attitudes

Información del proyecto

DEPOLARIZE

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 101076219

DOI

10.3030/101076219

Fecha de la firma de la CE 17 Enero 2023

Fecha de inicio 1 Noviembre 2023

Fecha de finalización 31 Octubre 2028

Financiado con arreglo a

• European Research Council (ERC)

Coste total

€ 1 499 740,00

Aportación de la UE

€ 1 499 740,00

Coordinado por

KOC UNIVERSITY
Türkiye

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - DEPOLARIZE (Affective Polarization and Democratic Attitudes)

Período documentado: 2023-11-01 hasta 2026-04-30

Resumen del contexto y de los objetivos generales del proyecto

We currently witness democratic backsliding around the world where political rights, civil liberties, and free and fair elections are under assault. At the same time, politics in many countries are increasingly characterized by hostility and distrust across partisan lines; a phenomenon called affective polarization. Could there be a causal link between the two? Despite several theoretical conjectures about how affective polarization erodes democracy, we lack the evidence to support them.

DEPOLARIZE has two main objectives: First, it will identify reliable and generalizable experimental interventions to reduce affective polarization in multiple contexts. Second, it will establish any causal relationship between affective polarization and democratic erosion through novel empirical approaches. DEPOLARIZE will achieve these objectives by producing and analysing high-quality observational and experimental data from multiple waves of surveys in Hungary, Poland, Turkey, and the US.

Trabajo realizado desde el comienzo del proyecto hasta el final del período abarcado por el informe y los principales resultados hasta la fecha

- In line with WP1 and WP2, we mapped the contours of affective polarization in Turkey and established the baseline patterns of affective polarization and democratic attitudes. These activities resulted in two academic papers: One paper is published in the journal South European Society and Politics (https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2025.2597287) and a second paper is under a second-stage review (after a Revise and Resubmit decision) by the journal Mediterranean Politics. Together these two papers provide a comprehensive picture of affective polarization and democratic attitudes in Turkey – a critical case of recent democratic backsliding and high levels of polarization.
- The data collection in the US with respect to WP1 and WP2 are completed, and we are in the process of writing up the findings. Early results were presented in the annual conference of the Society of Experimental Social Psychology (October 2025) and will be presented in the annual meetings of the Southern Political Science Association and Midwest Political Science Association (in the US) in January and April, 2026, respectively.
- With respect to WP3, we have identified three reliable experimental interventions to reduce affective polarization in the contexts of Turkey and the US. To the best of our knowledge, these findings represent the first interventions to reduce affective polarization that are generalizable to different contexts.
- With respect to WP3 and using data from Turkey, we provide the first experimental evidence in the literature of a causal link between affective polarization and democratic erosion, demonstrating that partisan animosity undermines democracy primarily by weakening electoral accountability rather than eroding democratic values. In this way, we address an important puzzle in the literature: while observational work consistently identifies strong correlations between partisan animosity and democratic decline, prior experimental interventions have reported null effects when focusing exclusively on attitudes. Our results suggest that this discrepancy may stem from an overly narrow focus on attitudes. The paper outlining these findings is currently under review at the Journal of Politics, a very prestigious journal in the field. We presented these results in several high-profile international conferences such as the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (2024), Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association (2025), and Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association (2025). We were also invited to present our work in the seminars/workshop of prestigious European universities/institutions, such as European University Institute, Central European University, and the WZB Berlin Social Science Centre.

Avances que van más allá del estado de la técnica e impacto potencial esperado (incluida la repercusión socioeconómica y las implicaciones sociales más amplias del proyecto hasta la fecha)

We developed a novel methodology to explore the causal relationship between affective polarization and democratic erosion and deployed it in our surveys. While previous studies have focused on self-reported democratic attitudes to assess the causal role of affective polarization in democratic erosion, we combined our depolarization interventions with a candidate conjoint experiment. In this design, we first deploy interventions to reduce respondents’ affective polarization and then present them with profiles of candidates to political office in a conjoint experiment. These profiles include candidates who propose actions that violate democratic principles. By comparing responses between successful depolarization treatment groups and a control group, we evaluate whether reducing affective polarization increases respondents’ willingness to penalize democratic violators.

The conjoint design offers important advantages for causal inference. Specifically, it makes the trade-offs explicit in elicitation of preferences that involves several dimensions, approximates real-world behaviour and also has the potential to limit social desirability bias. Moreover, and elite actions play a critical role in contemporary democratic erosion; therefore, a crucial research question is whether affective polarization diminishes citizens’ willingness to hold such politicians accountable. Self-reported support for democratic norms is conceptually distinct from this, and the conjoint design better addresses this important question.

Beyond our immediate studies, scholars could take advantage of the conjoint design to further analyse how different trade-offs citizens might face in elections could impact the role of affective polarization in democratic erosion.