IMPROVED PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREMES OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN FROM SEASONAL TO DECADAL TIMESCALES

Project Information

PREVENT

Grant agreement ID: 101081276

DOI

10.3030/101081276

EC signature date 1 October 2023

Start date 1 October 2023

End date 30 September 2026

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 2 997 875,00

EU contribution

€ 2 997 875,00

Coordinated by

ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS
Greece

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PREVENT (IMPROVED PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREMES OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN FROM SEASONAL TO DECADAL TIMESCALES)

Reporting period: 2023-10-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The PREVENT project addresses the urgent challenge of improving the ability to forecast extreme climate events in the Mediterranean, one of the world’s most climate-sensitive regions. The area is experiencing faster warming and more frequent heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, which increasingly threaten health, agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and tourism.

To respond to these challenges, PREVENT brings together experts from across Europe and neighboring Mediterranean countries to improve short- and long-term climate forecasts. The project combines scientific research with practical solutions, ensuring that climate information can be directly used to support adaptation planning and risk management.

PREVENT focuses on making forecasts more reliable and relevant for real-world needs. The team is building a comprehensive climate information system for the Mediterranean to identify areas most at risk and to help communities, governments, and businesses prepare for future extremes.

By working closely with stakeholders in key sectors—such as agriculture, water management, and tourism—the project translates scientific knowledge into actionable strategies. This approach helps reduce risks, strengthen resilience, and support sustainable development in the region.

PREVENT also promotes open science by sharing climate data and tools with the public, researchers, and policymakers. In doing so, it contributes directly to the goals of the EU Climate Adaptation Strategy and supports Europe’s broader efforts to build climate resilience and safeguard livelihoods.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

PREVENT made significant progress in enhancing our understanding and forecasting of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean region. This area is warming faster than the global average, and is increasingly affected by heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy rainfall.

The project team collected and analyzed both past and future climate information to identify “hotspot” areas that are particularly vulnerable to these extremes. This foundation is essential for developing more reliable seasonal and decadal climate forecasts — looking months to years ahead — to help communities and decision-makers plan more effectively.

PREVENT has worked on refining climate models better to capture the specific weather patterns of the Mediterranean. These improvements make forecasts more accurate and relevant to local needs. The team also studied the key drivers behind extreme events, such as prolonged heat and dry spells, and how large-scale weather patterns influence their occurrence.

To further improve forecasting capacity, the project began integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning methods. This will allow for more precise predictions and a better understanding of how different factors combine to produce extreme events.

The impacts of these changes were also explored in crucial sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and wildfire risk. For example, the project examined how future climate conditions may affect crop yields, water availability, and fire frequency in vulnerable regions.

PREVENT also developed a practical framework to support adaptation and risk reduction. Through consultations with stakeholders, the project is ensuring that the tools and forecasts created match real needs on the ground — particularly in agriculture and water management.

Several key milestones were reached, including scientific publications, major reports on climate and impacts, and presentations at international conferences. These efforts strengthen Europe’s capacity to anticipate climate extremes, reduce risks, and support adaptation planning.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

PREVENT is advancing the way climate extremes are predicted and understood in the Mediterranean, a region highly exposed to climate change. By combining advanced climate modeling, new data-driven methods, and impact assessments, the project is helping to make seasonal and decadal forecasts more accurate and useful for society.

A major achievement is the identification of areas most vulnerable to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. This information allows policymakers and local authorities to prioritize adaptation measures where they are needed most. The project’s improved forecasts and risk assessments also support early warning systems and strengthen preparedness across sectors that depend on climate stability, such as agriculture, water management, and energy.

PREVENT is also pioneering the use of modern data analysis and artificial intelligence techniques to improve the reliability of climate predictions. These innovations make it possible to better understand how different factors interact to cause extreme events and how these might evolve in the future.

The project’s findings directly support climate adaptation strategies. For example, improved climate projections are being used to guide sustainable water management, plan agricultural practices, and enhance wildfire prevention. This helps communities and decision-makers translate scientific knowledge into practical risk-reduction strategies.

To ensure lasting impact, PREVENT is committed to open science and collaboration. The project is developing digital tools and open-access databases that make climate information easily available to public authorities, researchers, and businesses. Strong partnerships with stakeholders are also ensuring that these tools are relevant and ready for real-world use.

Looking ahead, sustaining these advances will require continued investment, cooperation between scientists and policymakers, and integration of PREVENT’s tools into broader adaptation and risk management frameworks.

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