Transformational and Robust AdaptatioN to water Scarcity and ClimatE chaNge under Deep uncertainty

Project Information

TRANSCEND

Grant agreement ID: 101084110

DOI

10.3030/101084110

EC signature date 30 September 2022

Start date 1 January 2023

End date 31 December 2026

Funded under

• Food, Bioeconomy Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment

Total cost

€ 4 474 768,75

EU contribution

€ 4 331 088,00

Coordinated by

FUNDACION IMDEA AGUA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TRANSCEND (Transformational and Robust AdaptatioN to water Scarcity and ClimatE chaNge under Deep uncertainty)

Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The objective of TRANSCEND is to identify and catalyze the adoption of Transformational Adaptation Policies (TAP) to water scarcity, including innovative allocation systems and economic instruments, that are robust and adaptable to uncertainty and change, while simultaneously achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and welfare. To this end, TRANSCEND will develop a groundbreaking ecosystem of innovation that combines three key pillars: (i) a knowledge network for stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing, (ii) an actionable modeling suite that integrates interdisciplinary socioecological science and ensemble forecasting to guide TAP design, and (iii) an accounting and monitoring toolbox that supports implementation and enforcement of TAP in practice. TRANSCEND will apply the ecosystem of innovation to design and implement TAP in 7 labs: Júcar River Basin (RB) (Spain); Reno RB (Italy); Tympaki RB (Greece); Nitra RB (Slovakia); Caplina-Mauri-Desaguadero RB (Peru, Chile & Bolivia); Orontes RB (Lebanon, Syria & Turkey); and Mahanadi RB (Indian states of Chhattisgarh & Odisha).

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

TRANSCEND has nearly achieved the Specific Objective 01 (Inform transformational and robust adaptation) by thoroughly analyzing models, scenarios and metrics currently used by key stakeholders engaged in water resources management under climate change, and enhancing the integration of these models and methods with cutting-edge socio-ecological research and ensemble forecasting, thus creating 7 actionable modeling suites that have been adopted across the living labs. The modeling suites are expected to be validated by December 2024 when the second round of local workshops end, at which point the Specific Objective 01 will be achieved.
To acheive the Specific Objective 02 (demonstrate institutional and technical feasibility of the transition towards sustainable and equitable growth), we have thoroughly assessed governance/policy enablers and barriers for TAP adoption, policy monitoring and enforcement approaches, and climate, land use and socioeconomic scenarios across 7 labs with different natural and cultural environments; we have presented and discussed results from these deliverables, and iteratively revised them, with 87 institutions and 180 individual stakeholders in 7 local workshops (one per lab) and 17 institutions and 42 individual stakeholders in 1 international workshop in Lisbon (co-organized under the auspices of the Union for the Mediterranean), where we have initiated the co-design of TAP and scenarios; we have designed modeling blueprints and developed 7 modeling suites to test TAP performance under different socioeconomic and environmental scenarios, and initiated preliminary simulations to assess the socioeconomic and environmental impact of TAP using the modeling suite; and we have developed a prototype of TRANSCEND’s monitoring toolbox informed by stakeholder-defined data needs for TAP design and assessment.
We have initiated the adoption of TRANSCEND ecosystem of innovation in 6 ‘inspiration labs’, thus having met 75% of the Specific Objective 05 (Institute) even before the relevant task initiates.
We have moreover achieved some progress in the Specific Objectives 4 and 6, which are to be started after month 18.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Knowledge networks: To foster stakeholder engagement and co-creation of the TRANSCEND ecosystem of innovation, we have established 7 knowledge networks, one per living lab, including public authorities and policy makers, users’ associations, industry, scientists, and civil society organizations. At present, the knowledge networks engage 87 institutions and 205 individuals and have become a key pool of knowledge for TRANSCEND co-creation process to draw from the vast experience of local stakeholders, while building on cutting-edge scientific modeling, monitoring, and technical expertise from the Consortium to design and deliver TAP.
Modeling suite: The suite has been developed and is presently being used to assess performance of TAP, including through the use of sensitivity analysis and multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles to support the identification of robust adaptation strategies under uncertainty. User-friendly white papers and methodological sourcebooks have been prepared to guide co-creation experiences (notably model co-development and results co-evaluation) with key stakeholders, which have delivered relevant outputs for the project. The TRANSCEND modeling suite offers a groundbreaking and comprehensive protocol-based modular framework including climatic, hydrologic, agronomic, meteorological, microeconomic and/or macroeconomic modules. The modules incorporated in each lab modeling suite depend on the transformational strategy and context of the lab, both of which condition experimental design.
Monitoring toolbox: The monitoring toolbox design leverages advances in the availability and complexity of Earth Observation imagery together with advanced data science methods (incl. Machine learning methods), and open science methods and infrastructure to provide a low-cost and scalable solution for mapping spatio-temporal changes in agricultural land and water use within river basins. Four pilot applications of the toolbox are ongoing, focusing on key water policy challenges in selected TRANSCEND living labs including illegal water use detection (Tympaki and Jucar), resilience of water systems operation (Mahanadi), and trade-offs between agricultural expansion and freshwater ecosystems (Titicaca-Desaguadero-Popoo).