Ecology and biology of HPAIV H5 (Kappa-Flu)

Project Information

Kappa-Flu

Grant agreement ID: 101084171

DOI

10.3030/101084171

EC signature date 21 April 2023

Start date 1 May 2023

End date 30 April 2027

Funded under

• Food, Bioeconomy Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment

Total cost

€ 4 215 000,00

EU contribution

€ 4 215 000,00

Coordinated by

FRIEDRICH LOEFFLER INSTITUT - BUNDESFORSCHUNGSINSTITUT FUER TIERGESUNDHEIT
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - Kappa-Flu (Ecology and biology of HPAIV H5 (Kappa-Flu))

Reporting period: 2023-05-01 to 2024-10-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Kappa-Flu is an EU-funded project addressing the growing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), primarily caused by HPAI viruses (HPAIV) of the H5Nx subtype of clade 2.3.4.4b. These HPAIV have evolved rapidly, posing significant risks to poultry farming, animal welfare, livestock, and human health. The project responds to global concerns regarding veterinary public health and zoonotic risks.
HPAI H5Nx viruses, spread by migratory wild birds, have expanded their geographical range and affected many avian and mammalian species over the last 5 years. Recent outbreaks have caused millions of bird deaths worldwide with significant ecosystem and agricultural consequences, including zoonotic risks as evidenced by human infections in Asia and Northern America. The adaptability of these viruses during avian migration phases presents challenges for surveillance and control. KAPPA-FLU aims to better understand the dynamics of these viruses among wild birds, poultry, and their environment, as well as the prerequisites for spill-over infections in mammals, in order to develop risk-based strategies to mitigate the impact on wildlife, (veterinary) public health, animal welfare, and food systems. The project seeks to advance knowledge-based surveillance and provide cost-effective solutions to prevent outbreaks, ensuring sustainable poultry production and public health.
To achieve these goals, Kappa-Flu has established five key objectives:
1. Understand H5 HPAI Ecology: Investigate interactions between HPAI viruses and migratory bird populations to identify factors contributing to long-term virus maintenance.
2. Identify Pathways into Poultry: Analyze how HPAI viruses enter poultry populations, focusing on sources and transmission routes.
3. Study Viral Genetic Changes: Explore how mutations and reassortments affect the virus’s ability to infect various species and assess potential risks to human health.
4. Assess Risk Factors for Poultry and Mammalian Spill-over: Examine environmental and management changes impacting virus incursions into poultry farms.
5. Develop Control and Prevention Strategies: Create cost-effective prevention and control methods for poultry farms to reduce virus transmission.
Kappa-Flu integrates virology, ecology, socio-economic sciences, and climate-change impacts on virus evolution to strengthen EU monitoring, prevention, and control of avian influenza.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During the first 18 months, Kappa-Flu has advanced understanding of HPAI virus dynamics by exploring:
1. Viral Ecology and Host Interactions: Virus samples from migratory species were analyzed to determine reservoirs and transmission patterns. Migration routes were correlated with virus detection, sequences, and environmental factors such as climate using remote sensor tracking and modeling techniques.
2. Transmission Pathways into Poultry and Mammals: Epidemiologic investigations traced outbreaks to wild birds and poultry farms. Genetic sequencing and spatial data analysis identified common transmission pathways, particularly during migratory periods. Hereby, various Kappa-Flu surveillance sites, e.g. in Sweden, Georgia or Antarctica served as important sources of samples.
3. Genetic Evolution of the Virus: Sequence analysis provided the basis for the identification of mutations and reassortments in the viral genome possibly enhancing adaptability. Laboratory assays evaluated these changes’ impact on transmission and pathogenicity, highlighting mutations linked to increased transmissibility in mammals. Data from cell cultures, organoids, and animal models provided insights into HPAIV H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b biology.
4. Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling: The project developed advanced risk models that simulate different outbreak scenarios based on environmental conditions, virus strains, and avian migration patterns to target surveillance and prevention efforts.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Kappa-Flu has achieved numerous breakthroughs in HPAI understanding, particularly concerning serotype H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b:
1. Breakthroughs in Virus Ecology and Surveillance: Data from tagged birds and genomic sequencing revealed non-canonical avian migration patterns, possibly improving HPAIV risk assessments and surveillance systems.
2. Innovations in Genetic Analysis: Virulence-associated genetic markers could be identified, providing important information for wild bird populations, global spread and (veterinary) public health. New tools for real-time monitoring of mutations enhanced (pandemic) preparedness, while in vitro and in vivo studies provided critical data on HPAIV biology and control measures.
3. Advancements in Risk Models: Kappa-Flu’s models integrated multiple factors to predict outbreaks accurately and helped to prioritize surveillance and prevention efforts.
4. New Cost-Effective Control Measures: A preliminary economic model estimated financial impacts of HPAI outbreaks, supporting refined control strategies. Ongoing review of data from outbreak analyses in KAPPA-FLU partner countries provides a basis for evaluating control measures’ cost-effectiveness.
5. Potential Impacts and Future Uptake: Kappa-Flu’s findings have far-reaching implications for (veterinary) public health, wildlife conservation, and agriculture. Continued research on HPAIV H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b its evolution, spillover potential, and zoonotic risks, is critical, alongside supportive regulatory frameworks and international collaboration.