Periodic Reporting for period 1 - E4Warning (Eco-Epidemiological Intelligence for early Warning and response to mosquito-borne disease risk in Endemic and Emergence settings)
Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-06-30
Mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and West Nile fever are increasingly threatening global health due to climate change and global travel. Every year, around 390 million people contract dengue, leading to up to 36,000 deaths. While these diseases primarily affect tropical and subtropical regions, Europe has seen a rise in cases since 2010, raising concerns that these illnesses could become established in temperate areas.
E4Warning is a project designed to understand and predict the spread of these diseases by examining the interactions between humans, mosquitoes, other animals, and the environment. The project focuses on two disease cycles: urban diseases like dengue and Zika, spread by Aedes mosquitoes, and zoonotic diseases like West Nile fever, which primarily circulate among birds and can spill over to humans or horses, transmitted mainly by Culex mosquitoes.
E4Warning brings together 12 organizations from across Europe, including experts in mosquito biology, ecology, satellite data, technology, and data analysis. The project develops and enhances tools like the Mosquito Alert citizen science platform, smart mosquito traps by IRIDEON, and acoustic sensors for monitoring bird hosts of West Nile Virus. These tools improve the monitoring of environmental changes and their impact on disease emergence. E4Warning also uses Earth Observation data to forecast disease risks in Southeast Asia, model human mobility, and assess the risk of dengue importation into Europe, aiming to prevent outbreaks before they spread.
E4Warning is a project designed to understand and predict the spread of these diseases by examining the interactions between humans, mosquitoes, other animals, and the environment. The project focuses on two disease cycles: urban diseases like dengue and Zika, spread by Aedes mosquitoes, and zoonotic diseases like West Nile fever, which primarily circulate among birds and can spill over to humans or horses, transmitted mainly by Culex mosquitoes.
E4Warning brings together 12 organizations from across Europe, including experts in mosquito biology, ecology, satellite data, technology, and data analysis. The project develops and enhances tools like the Mosquito Alert citizen science platform, smart mosquito traps by IRIDEON, and acoustic sensors for monitoring bird hosts of West Nile Virus. These tools improve the monitoring of environmental changes and their impact on disease emergence. E4Warning also uses Earth Observation data to forecast disease risks in Southeast Asia, model human mobility, and assess the risk of dengue importation into Europe, aiming to prevent outbreaks before they spread.
Participatory science has been expanded across Europe and launched in Uruguay, resulting in 97,863 reports from 67 countries during RP1. These include 48,826 reports of adult mosquitoes, 47,491 of mosquito bites, and 7,524 of breeding sites. The VECTRACK sensors and AI algorithms in smart mosquito traps have been enhanced, allowing real-time monitoring of mosquito populations in Spain, Greece, and two Brazilian cities. The use of bioblogging in birds with GPS and Sigfox technology is generating significant data on bird movements, key to understanding the spread of West Nile Virus (WNV).
Significant improvements have been made to data streams and automated systems for daily vector risk estimation, supporting public health agencies in Barcelona and across Spain. The project has also advanced an integrated dengue early warning system in Southeast Asia, driven by satellite data, meteorological forecasts, and recent case reports.
Over 45 datasets have been processed to support the modeling of WNV and dengue vectors and hosts. Climate downscaling techniques have improved spatial resolution, and vector suitability maps have been produced for Europe. An ensemble model predicts monthly suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution for hosts across the four study sites.
Additionally, endemic dengue cases have been mapped to assess outbreak likelihood in hotspot areas, linking this with models of dengue importation into Europe. Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and air passenger data have been used to reconstruct importation dynamics for 2010–2019, with predictions extending to 2020–2021.
Significant improvements have been made to data streams and automated systems for daily vector risk estimation, supporting public health agencies in Barcelona and across Spain. The project has also advanced an integrated dengue early warning system in Southeast Asia, driven by satellite data, meteorological forecasts, and recent case reports.
Over 45 datasets have been processed to support the modeling of WNV and dengue vectors and hosts. Climate downscaling techniques have improved spatial resolution, and vector suitability maps have been produced for Europe. An ensemble model predicts monthly suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution for hosts across the four study sites.
Additionally, endemic dengue cases have been mapped to assess outbreak likelihood in hotspot areas, linking this with models of dengue importation into Europe. Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and air passenger data have been used to reconstruct importation dynamics for 2010–2019, with predictions extending to 2020–2021.
Advanced Monitoring Tools: E4Warning has pioneered the integration of cutting-edge technologies such as citizen science, smart mosquito traps and acoustic sensors, which provide near real-time data on mosquito presence, abundance, and bird host activity. These tools represent a significant advancement in the ability to monitor and predict vector populations with unprecedented accuracy.
Citizen Science and Data Democratization: The Mosquito Alert platform, a cornerstone of the E4Warning project, has expanded its reach and impact through the active engagement of citizens in disease monitoring. This approach not only democratizes data collection but also fosters public awareness and involvement in disease prevention efforts. The success of Mosquito Alert in Europe and its recent implementation in Uruguay underscore its potential for global application.
Climate-Driven Disease Risk Forecasting: Leveraging Earth Observation (EO) data, E4Warning has developed advanced climate-driven models to forecast disease risks in regions where dengue is endemic.
Citizen Science and Data Democratization: The Mosquito Alert platform, a cornerstone of the E4Warning project, has expanded its reach and impact through the active engagement of citizens in disease monitoring. This approach not only democratizes data collection but also fosters public awareness and involvement in disease prevention efforts. The success of Mosquito Alert in Europe and its recent implementation in Uruguay underscore its potential for global application.
Climate-Driven Disease Risk Forecasting: Leveraging Earth Observation (EO) data, E4Warning has developed advanced climate-driven models to forecast disease risks in regions where dengue is endemic.