The project bridges social sciences (behavioural economics, experimental methods, diffusion theory) and the environmental transition challenge. It aims to pinpoint the conditions under which sustainable behaviours can spread from a niche to become a social norm, and ultimately contribute to the transformation required for a greener future. To this end, GREEN TIPPING follows a four-pronged research strategy: (1) posit – to derive predictions about adoption thresholds and the timing of norm abandonment; (2) test – to evaluate the effectiveness of behavioural interventions in multi-country representative samples; (3) refine – to calibrate and optimise interventions through controlled group experiments, identifying susceptible target groups; and (4) validate – to assess real-world contagion effects, for example in the adoption of renewable energy, to observe whether interventions lead to social diffusion beyond treated groups.
Key scientific outputs so far already include four publications, one submitted article and one preprint under revision, pertaining to all four modules. Much follow-up work is currently underway and will lead to key theoretical and empirical findings in the coming years.
Through these activities, the project has achieved: development of behavioural experiments and large-scale survey modules across countries; the execution of controlled experiments on group behaviour and public-good style dilemmas; the identification of key parameters for intervention (e.g. threshold sizes, heterogeneity of target groups, role of peer influence); and commencement of field outreach and diffusion validation (e.g. monitoring how renewable-energy adoption spreads, and how a treated group may trigger contagion in untreated groups).
In short, GREEN TIPPING has advanced from theoretical framing to empirical testing, refined intervention design, and is now moving toward real-world validation of social tipping processes.
