Periodic Reporting for period 1 - NMDAR-DCM (Profiling NMDA receptor in schizophrenia and predicting clinical trajectories from rsEEG using dynamic causal modelling)
Reporting period: 2022-09-01 to 2024-08-31
Currently, non-invasive methods to manipulate synaptic transmission are lacking. However, advances in dynamic causal models (DCMs) for electroencephalography (EEG) offer a potential solution by simulating neural activity and predicting synaptic dynamics.
Research using DCMs has shown promise in estimating NMDA-R parameters from resting-state EEG data, but its robustness and generalizability still need to be determined. This project seeks to enhance NMDA-R DCMs to improve their reliability and applicability across various EEG datasets, aiming for deeper insights into NMDA-R function and better interpretability in clinical and research settings.
The combination of a unique dataset of a large cohort of schizophrenic patients and the same number of controls in a prospective study design offers a unique opportunity to profile NMDA-R dysfunctions related to schizophrenia and tentatively predict the individual clinical trajectories that might allow for personalized treatment of patients by guiding selection of antipsychotic drugs with differential affinity to NMDA-Rs.
The specific scientific goals of this project are two-fold: methodological—developing and validating novel and robust DCM variants that are able to profile NMDA-R dynamics—and clinical—evaluating and possibly predicting clinical trajectories of schizophrenic patients. The methodological aim can be summarized with two goals:
1. Develop novel formulations of NMDA-R DCM applicable to rsEEG data and validate their robustness on within-subject animal data with pharmacological intervention via ketamine.
2. Cross-validate novel NMDA-R DCM on human resting-state EEG data using a within-subject design with pharmacological intervention via ketamine.
The final goal of this project then represents the clinical aim:
3. Perform NMDA-R profiling employing a novel DCM in schizophrenic patients and study its predictive power using generative embedding techniques.
This project will also help establish computational assays as a standard procedure in clinical practice, thereby making a step towards personalized mental health care in general.
Model inference relies on the stability and reliability of models interpreting brain activity, which is essential for sensitivity analysis, parameter recovery, and robustness evaluation. Sensitivity analysis assesses how small parameter changes affect output, guiding model refinement. Parameter recovery tests the accuracy of estimated values from observed data, ensuring outputs reflect neurobiological mechanisms. Robustness testing evaluates a model's stability across different datasets and conditions. Together, these analyses ensure meaningful insights into neural processes and increase confidence in using computational models to inform brain function and dynamics theories. We thoroughly researched, implemented, tested, and performed in-depth sensitivity and parameter recovery analyses using different methods. Analyses were done in a loop where we adapted the mathematical model definition, performed the analyses again, and compared the results. The results from our analyses were presented at the world-leading conference Organization for Human Brain Mapping Annual Meeting in 2023 and 2024.
The second novel result is more in the light of a technical note and recommendation for the practical use of Dynamical Causal Models, mainly related to their inference capabilities. It has been shown before that DCMs for M/EEG data might suffer from complexity, and their generalizability and robustness still need to be fully characterized. During the project, we systematically researched, implemented, tested, and utilized various mathematical and statistical techniques to inform the modeler of such model properties. To the best of our knowledge, this is separate from the typical repertoire for practical usage of DCMs in clinical settings. In return, the questionable robustness and generalizability hinder the potential clinical benefits of computational assays. Although we have not published our results as a journal article, we presented these findings and recommendations at two neuroscientific conferences, and our work received considerable interest from theoretical and clinical researchers. Once we publish our findings in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, our work will significantly help establish sensitivity and robustness analyses as a much-needed part of the clinical use of models stemming from computational neuroscience.