Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MIRACA (Multi-hazard Infrastructure Risk Assessment for Climate Adaptation)
Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-06-30
Europe’s critical infrastructure (CI) is at risk of failure due to natural hazards and rapid climate change, which can lead to major physical and economic damages. Existing methods for climate risk analysis are not tailored to the complexities of CI: they do not properly account for systems interdependencies, while also still containing key data gaps. Public authorities urgently need tools to pinpoint the risk-prone areas and to develop affordable adaptation strategies to enhance CI resilience.
The mission of the MIRACA project is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for CI throughout Europe. MIRACA’s main objective is to develop a decision-making toolkit for Critical Infrastructure risk management and adaptation within Europe, dedicated to explicitly incorporating the systemic risk to CI in a multi-hazard setting. MIRACA’s vision is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for critical infrastructure throughout Europe. To achieve this, the overall aim of MIRACA is to develop a decision-support toolkit that couples multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessment with the analysis of direct and indirect economic consequences and adaptation options appraisal for CI. We integrate the causal chain from climate stressors to adaptive responses into one unifying framework. MIRACA’s toolkit will consist of (i) a Guidance on technical and economic appraisal of adaptation strategies, (ii) a decision-support technical workbench and (iii) a decision-support online interactive viewer. This report summarizes progress towards this overall aim during the first reporting period (Months 1-18).
The mission of the MIRACA project is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for CI throughout Europe. MIRACA’s main objective is to develop a decision-making toolkit for Critical Infrastructure risk management and adaptation within Europe, dedicated to explicitly incorporating the systemic risk to CI in a multi-hazard setting. MIRACA’s vision is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for critical infrastructure throughout Europe. To achieve this, the overall aim of MIRACA is to develop a decision-support toolkit that couples multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessment with the analysis of direct and indirect economic consequences and adaptation options appraisal for CI. We integrate the causal chain from climate stressors to adaptive responses into one unifying framework. MIRACA’s toolkit will consist of (i) a Guidance on technical and economic appraisal of adaptation strategies, (ii) a decision-support technical workbench and (iii) a decision-support online interactive viewer. This report summarizes progress towards this overall aim during the first reporting period (Months 1-18).
In D1.2 we have created an overview of existing available datasets for various climate extremes, whereas in D1.3 we have created a unique historical multi-hazard event set, considering the interactions between the aforementioned natural hazards. Moreover, we closely collaborate with the MYRIAD-EU project, where stochastic event sets are being developed for several hazards within Europe.
We have successfully developed a first version of the MIRACA standardized exposure database (M1). The database combines the latest publicly available and spatially explicit information on CI in a standardized matter. This forms the basis of the second (asset and network-level development) and third stage (systemic risk and refinement) within MIRACA. The first version of the exposure database allows for testing the standardization procedure and helps to identify where most efforts should be directed to in further completing this database. Moreover, the vulnerability database, which is based on the harmonization work by Nirandjan et al. (2024), is on its way to become the most complete public overview of multiple and multi-hazard fragility and vulnerability curves at date.
Within WP2, we have successfully started to develop interdependent network models, in particular for multimodal transportation systems. As a result of synergies with on-going projects at the University of Oxford, quick progress has been made in the method and model development for network flow analysis of interdependent CI systems. As a result, Task 2.4 is ahead of schedule, allowing to further tailor the model approaches to the characteristics and needs of European CI.
We have started with the asset-level risk assessments of CI systems in a multi-hazard context. This will be done for return-period footprint maps (in particular on asset level) as well as specific (multi-)hazard events (required to assess knock-on effects through other CI- networks and the economy) using the multi-hazard event set as developed in D1.3. An end-to-end model framework has been developed in D4.4 which allows for assessing the macroeconomic risks of CI failure to firms. These methodological developments will be further refined in different use cases and various locations within Europe.
Within WP4, we have now successfully collected a large number of adaptation strategies and hazard intervention options for various CI systems and all hazards considered within MIRACA. To our knowledge, such an extensive overview has not been created as of date. The following years, this will be extended towards network and systemic level options as well. This will allow MIRACA to inform CI operators and public authorities which adaptation options are feasible, and how options among different levels in a CI system, and between various hazards, could either strengthen each other, or cause potential maladaptation. The work within MIRACA will set the foundation to develop knowledge-driven multi-hazard adaptation strategies for CI systems.
Within WP5, the preparations are currently being made in the development of a multi-hazard decision-support toolkit. This is based on several stakeholder engagements, and with the feedback of the External Advisory Board. A first version of the technical workbench has been successfully published now online. The exploratory viewer, at the European level, will provide information on the exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment of different CI due to climate hazards. Then, an additional dashboard will be developed, in the form of a scrolly-telling, that goes in more detail about the workflow of the MIRACA framework. With these two visualisation products, the users will be able to get information on what is the CI affected by different types of hazards, at the Pan-European level, while also learning how this risk has been calculated.
We have successfully developed a first version of the MIRACA standardized exposure database (M1). The database combines the latest publicly available and spatially explicit information on CI in a standardized matter. This forms the basis of the second (asset and network-level development) and third stage (systemic risk and refinement) within MIRACA. The first version of the exposure database allows for testing the standardization procedure and helps to identify where most efforts should be directed to in further completing this database. Moreover, the vulnerability database, which is based on the harmonization work by Nirandjan et al. (2024), is on its way to become the most complete public overview of multiple and multi-hazard fragility and vulnerability curves at date.
Within WP2, we have successfully started to develop interdependent network models, in particular for multimodal transportation systems. As a result of synergies with on-going projects at the University of Oxford, quick progress has been made in the method and model development for network flow analysis of interdependent CI systems. As a result, Task 2.4 is ahead of schedule, allowing to further tailor the model approaches to the characteristics and needs of European CI.
We have started with the asset-level risk assessments of CI systems in a multi-hazard context. This will be done for return-period footprint maps (in particular on asset level) as well as specific (multi-)hazard events (required to assess knock-on effects through other CI- networks and the economy) using the multi-hazard event set as developed in D1.3. An end-to-end model framework has been developed in D4.4 which allows for assessing the macroeconomic risks of CI failure to firms. These methodological developments will be further refined in different use cases and various locations within Europe.
Within WP4, we have now successfully collected a large number of adaptation strategies and hazard intervention options for various CI systems and all hazards considered within MIRACA. To our knowledge, such an extensive overview has not been created as of date. The following years, this will be extended towards network and systemic level options as well. This will allow MIRACA to inform CI operators and public authorities which adaptation options are feasible, and how options among different levels in a CI system, and between various hazards, could either strengthen each other, or cause potential maladaptation. The work within MIRACA will set the foundation to develop knowledge-driven multi-hazard adaptation strategies for CI systems.
Within WP5, the preparations are currently being made in the development of a multi-hazard decision-support toolkit. This is based on several stakeholder engagements, and with the feedback of the External Advisory Board. A first version of the technical workbench has been successfully published now online. The exploratory viewer, at the European level, will provide information on the exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment of different CI due to climate hazards. Then, an additional dashboard will be developed, in the form of a scrolly-telling, that goes in more detail about the workflow of the MIRACA framework. With these two visualisation products, the users will be able to get information on what is the CI affected by different types of hazards, at the Pan-European level, while also learning how this risk has been calculated.
The standardized exposure and vulnerability database that is developed within MIRACA provides the foundation for asset-level risks models that explicitly incorporate multiple and multi-hazard risks, and will provide the basis of assessing the wide range of adaptation options that are collected in WP4. The network and system-level impact assessment models that are being developed in WP3 and WP4 ensure that we go beyond the current state-of-the-art of mostly using asset-level information within climate adaptation strategies.
The combination of the technical workbench, the data visualizer, and the interactive story-telling will provide a unique combination of tools to ensure that public servants, with different knowledge backgrounds, are able to use the knowledge and tools developed within the MIRACA project.
The four first deliverables of WP1 to 4 have provided us with a very clear overview of the current gaps in European data and models with respect to the assessment of direct and indirect economic impacts. Gaps identification was an aim of the first nine months within MIRACA. The remainder of MIRACA is devoted to fill some of these gaps to better assess those direct and indirect consequences through the development of state-of-the-art network and system-level risk models, that explicitly allow for interdependencies within and between different CI systems.
The combination of the technical workbench, the data visualizer, and the interactive story-telling will provide a unique combination of tools to ensure that public servants, with different knowledge backgrounds, are able to use the knowledge and tools developed within the MIRACA project.
The four first deliverables of WP1 to 4 have provided us with a very clear overview of the current gaps in European data and models with respect to the assessment of direct and indirect economic impacts. Gaps identification was an aim of the first nine months within MIRACA. The remainder of MIRACA is devoted to fill some of these gaps to better assess those direct and indirect consequences through the development of state-of-the-art network and system-level risk models, that explicitly allow for interdependencies within and between different CI systems.