Periodic Reporting for period 2 - MIRACA (Multi-hazard Infrastructure Risk Assessment for Climate Adaptation)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-07-01 do 2025-06-30
Europe’s critical infrastructure (CI) is at risk of failure due to natural hazards and rapid climate change, which can lead to major physical and economic damages. Existing methods for climate risk analysis are not tailored to the complexities of CI: they do not properly account for systems interdependencies, while also still containing key data gaps. Public authorities urgently need tools to pinpoint the risk-prone areas and to develop affordable adaptation strategies to enhance CI resilience.
The mission of the MIRACA project is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for CI throughout Europe. MIRACA’s main objective is to develop a decision-making toolkit for Critical Infrastructure risk management and adaptation within Europe, dedicated to explicitly incorporating the systemic risk to CI in a multi-hazard setting. MIRACA’s vision is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for critical infrastructure throughout Europe. To achieve this, the overall aim of MIRACA is to develop a decision-support toolkit that couples multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessment with the analysis of direct and indirect economic consequences and adaptation options appraisal for CI. We integrate the causal chain from climate stressors to adaptive responses into one unifying framework. MIRACA’s toolkit will consist of (i) a Guidance on technical and economic appraisal of adaptation strategies, (ii) a decision-support technical workbench and (iii) a decision-support online interactive viewer. This report summarizes progress towards this overall aim during the first reporting period (Months 1-18).
The mission of the MIRACA project is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for CI throughout Europe. MIRACA’s main objective is to develop a decision-making toolkit for Critical Infrastructure risk management and adaptation within Europe, dedicated to explicitly incorporating the systemic risk to CI in a multi-hazard setting. MIRACA’s vision is to catalyse and empower the implementation of adaptation measures for critical infrastructure throughout Europe. To achieve this, the overall aim of MIRACA is to develop a decision-support toolkit that couples multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessment with the analysis of direct and indirect economic consequences and adaptation options appraisal for CI. We integrate the causal chain from climate stressors to adaptive responses into one unifying framework. MIRACA’s toolkit will consist of (i) a Guidance on technical and economic appraisal of adaptation strategies, (ii) a decision-support technical workbench and (iii) a decision-support online interactive viewer. This report summarizes progress towards this overall aim during the first reporting period (Months 1-18).
During the second reporting period (Months 18-30), MIRACA has mostly focused on developing the underlying data, tools and models for the final multi-level adaptation appraisal tool.
WP1 - Multi-hazard data and databases: The exposure database underwent substantial improvements as part of T1.4. The entire dataset generation procedure was uploaded to GitHub with efficiency improvements allowing users to select specific infrastructure types and countries. The vulnerability database (T1.5) was significantly extended with additional transportation network components, gas and oil sector assets, and incorporation of fragility curves for wildfires and multi-hazard interactions including earthquake-landslide, earthquake-liquefaction, and sequential earthquakes. The database now includes fragility curves for both pristine and strengthened school buildings and corroded hospital structures, representing a comprehensive resource for multi-hazard vulnerability assessment.
WP2 - CI network flow and interdependencies: The system-of-systems framework for interdependent network creation (T2.2) was established, incorporating hierarchical structures, failure cascading identification, and connectivity mapping through Voronoi polygons and physical proximity analysis. Power (T2.3) and transport system flow information (T2.4) was completed using Supply and Use Tables from the RHOMOLO V4 dataset, with sector- and region-specific conversion factors developed to translate monetary trade values into physical units. The process-based network flow model was formulated as a minimum-cost maximum-flow optimization problem and successfully applied to road networks, demonstrating capability for extension to multi-modal transport networks at pan-European scale.
WP3 - Systemic risk assessment: The first version of pan-European asset-level risk assessment (T3.2) was finalized through D3.2 covering floods, earthquakes, windstorms, extreme heat, wildfires and landslides across multiple infrastructure types using harmonized datasets. A scalable multi-hazard risk assessment framework was developed, accounting for hazard interdependencies, compound effects, and evolving climate conditions through structured single-hazard approaches and broader multi-hazard frameworks based on conceptual Bayesian networks. The macroeconomic model for system-level impacts (T3.4) was developed and demonstrated through flood scenarios in the Greater Rijnmond region, quantifying amplified economic impacts of power service disruptions using a modular and adaptable framework.
WP4 - Appraisal of adaptation strategies: Network-level adaptation methodologies (T4.3) were completed through D4.3 incorporating both topological and network service approaches with relevant metrics for availability and safety indicators. The multi-hazard aspect was emphasized for network-level modeling, considering spatial and temporal correlation structures of climate hazard data. A cost-benefit analysis model prototype (T4.5) was developed to measure adaptation option effectiveness over their lifetime, calculating benefit-cost ratios through discounted benefits and costs under given discounting rates.
WP5 - Decision-support toolkit development: The technical workbench (T5.2) was enhanced with standardized coding guidelines and best practices documentation, organized into three main sections covering the MIRACA approach, Use Cases, and background material. Technical requirements for the interactive viewer (T5.3) were consolidated through stakeholder feedback sessions. Backend and frontend requirements were tested and validated, positioning all components for the development of the first version of the interactive viewer toward D5.3.
WP1 - Multi-hazard data and databases: The exposure database underwent substantial improvements as part of T1.4. The entire dataset generation procedure was uploaded to GitHub with efficiency improvements allowing users to select specific infrastructure types and countries. The vulnerability database (T1.5) was significantly extended with additional transportation network components, gas and oil sector assets, and incorporation of fragility curves for wildfires and multi-hazard interactions including earthquake-landslide, earthquake-liquefaction, and sequential earthquakes. The database now includes fragility curves for both pristine and strengthened school buildings and corroded hospital structures, representing a comprehensive resource for multi-hazard vulnerability assessment.
WP2 - CI network flow and interdependencies: The system-of-systems framework for interdependent network creation (T2.2) was established, incorporating hierarchical structures, failure cascading identification, and connectivity mapping through Voronoi polygons and physical proximity analysis. Power (T2.3) and transport system flow information (T2.4) was completed using Supply and Use Tables from the RHOMOLO V4 dataset, with sector- and region-specific conversion factors developed to translate monetary trade values into physical units. The process-based network flow model was formulated as a minimum-cost maximum-flow optimization problem and successfully applied to road networks, demonstrating capability for extension to multi-modal transport networks at pan-European scale.
WP3 - Systemic risk assessment: The first version of pan-European asset-level risk assessment (T3.2) was finalized through D3.2 covering floods, earthquakes, windstorms, extreme heat, wildfires and landslides across multiple infrastructure types using harmonized datasets. A scalable multi-hazard risk assessment framework was developed, accounting for hazard interdependencies, compound effects, and evolving climate conditions through structured single-hazard approaches and broader multi-hazard frameworks based on conceptual Bayesian networks. The macroeconomic model for system-level impacts (T3.4) was developed and demonstrated through flood scenarios in the Greater Rijnmond region, quantifying amplified economic impacts of power service disruptions using a modular and adaptable framework.
WP4 - Appraisal of adaptation strategies: Network-level adaptation methodologies (T4.3) were completed through D4.3 incorporating both topological and network service approaches with relevant metrics for availability and safety indicators. The multi-hazard aspect was emphasized for network-level modeling, considering spatial and temporal correlation structures of climate hazard data. A cost-benefit analysis model prototype (T4.5) was developed to measure adaptation option effectiveness over their lifetime, calculating benefit-cost ratios through discounted benefits and costs under given discounting rates.
WP5 - Decision-support toolkit development: The technical workbench (T5.2) was enhanced with standardized coding guidelines and best practices documentation, organized into three main sections covering the MIRACA approach, Use Cases, and background material. Technical requirements for the interactive viewer (T5.3) were consolidated through stakeholder feedback sessions. Backend and frontend requirements were tested and validated, positioning all components for the development of the first version of the interactive viewer toward D5.3.
The standardized exposure and vulnerability database that is developed within MIRACA provides the foundation for asset-level risks models that explicitly incorporate multiple and multi-hazard risks, and will provide the basis of assessing the wide range of adaptation options that are collected in WP4. The network and system-level impact assessment models that are being developed in WP3 and WP4 ensure that we go beyond the current state-of-the-art of mostly using asset-level information within climate adaptation strategies.
The combination of the technical workbench, the data visualizer, and the interactive story-telling will provide a unique combination of tools to ensure that public servants, with different knowledge backgrounds, are able to use the knowledge and tools developed within the MIRACA project.
The four first deliverables of WP1 to 4 have provided us with a very clear overview of the current gaps in European data and models with respect to the assessment of direct and indirect economic impacts. Gaps identification was an aim of the first nine months within MIRACA. The remainder of MIRACA is devoted to fill some of these gaps to better assess those direct and indirect consequences through the development of state-of-the-art network and system-level risk models, that explicitly allow for interdependencies within and between different CI systems.
The combination of the technical workbench, the data visualizer, and the interactive story-telling will provide a unique combination of tools to ensure that public servants, with different knowledge backgrounds, are able to use the knowledge and tools developed within the MIRACA project.
The four first deliverables of WP1 to 4 have provided us with a very clear overview of the current gaps in European data and models with respect to the assessment of direct and indirect economic impacts. Gaps identification was an aim of the first nine months within MIRACA. The remainder of MIRACA is devoted to fill some of these gaps to better assess those direct and indirect consequences through the development of state-of-the-art network and system-level risk models, that explicitly allow for interdependencies within and between different CI systems.