Descripción del proyecto
Un nuevo supermodelo para la predicción climática
Los servicios de previsión del clima son fundamentales para mantener a las sociedades preparadas. Sus servicios son todavía más importantes para la prevención de posibles desastres. Por desgracia, los sistemas actuales se ven obstaculizados por errores sistemáticos en los modelos, lo que limita sustancialmente su capacidad para predecir de manera eficiente los cambios climáticos y hace que el proceso sea muy caro. El equipo del proyecto TOSCP, financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación, ofrecerá una solución. Usarán el supermodelo desarrollado por el proyecto STERCP, también financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación, para obtener predicciones climáticas más eficientes por un coste inferior. Asimismo, emplearán novedosos sistemas de asimilación y datos para optimizar el servicio.
Objetivo
TOSCP will proof-of-concept a radically new approach to climate prediction based on supermodelling. Climate prediction promises reliable information on climate and its extremes for the coming seasons and years. This information is critical to providing climate services that are needed to build a resilient and sustainable society. Unfortunately, predicting climate in the extra-tropics remains a major challenge. Model systematic error is the major limitation. In the North Atlantic-European sector it leads to the strong under representation of the predictable dynamics, compared to unpredictable atmospheric weather patterns. The current approach to account for such errors is to perform a vast number of independent simulations with different models. This is computationally expensive and impractical in an operational context. The supermodel approach developed in the ERC-STERCP project is aptly suited to improve climate prediction. A supermodel combines a set of different models in runtime so that the individual model errors compensate so as to produce a superior model. The approach is extremely effective in mitigating long-standing model errors, and can control the ratio between predictable and unpredictable dynamics. TOSCP will reconfigure a supermodel developed in the STERCP project for climate prediction. The supermodel is based on three state-of-the-art climate models. We will develop new ensemble generation and data assimilation schemes. We aim to demonstrate that supermodel climate predictions greatly outperform the standard approach to climate prediction that is currently used for climate services. Dialogue with users and providers of climate
services will ensure the development of an optimal configuration of the new prediction system and its use in operational climate services. This will set the stage for the wider exploitation of supermodel climate prediction, leading to improved climate services for the benefit of society.
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-ERC-POC - HORIZON ERC Proof of Concept GrantsInstitución de acogida
5020 Bergen
Noruega