Interdisciplinary Model for Understanding Climate Change Adaptation

Informations projet

IMUCCA

N° de convention de subvention: 101107252

DOI

10.3030/101107252

Date de signature de la CE 2 Mai 2023

Date de début 1 Janvier 2024

Date de fin 30 Septembre 2027

Financé au titre de

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Coût total

Aucune donnée

Contribution de l’UE

€ 274 163,20

Coordonné par

UNIVERSITA CA' FOSCARI VENEZIA
Italy

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - IMUCCA (Interdisciplinary Model for Understanding Climate Change Adaptation)

Période du rapport: 2024-01-01 au 2026-06-30

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

Agriculture supports the livelihoods of a significant proportion of rural households worldwide but is increasingly under pressure from climate change. Yet climate change does not affect all farmers equally. Even within the same village, vulnerability and the capacity to adapt can vary greatly depending on economic position, gender, access to land and water, income, credit and other resources. These differences can be overlooked when climate vulnerability and adaptation are studied at the level of countries, regions or communities.

IMUCCA asks: How do existing social and economic inequalities shape people’s vulnerability to climate change and their adaption practices? The project investigates this question in India, a predominantly agricultural country where farming is already under considerable pressure from rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events and declining agricultural productivity. Empirical research was conducted in two villages in the state of Maharashtra, during two fieldwork visits, using mixed methods combining household surveys with qualitative interviews. The empirical focus was on how access to capital and resources, livelihood choices and gender interact to produce different forms of vulnerability and adaptation.

The aim is to contribute to more socially informed and equitable approaches to climate adaptation by providing evidence that can help policymakers and civil-society organisations better identify vulnerable groups and their differing needs and capacities. The framework developed through the research is intended to be applicable beyond the immediate study area and to other climate-affected agrarian societies. These questions have important implications for the future of small-scale agriculture, where the capacity to adapt to climate change will be critical to the continued viability of farming and rural livelihoods.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

During the reporting period, work progressed across the project’s main scientific objectives and related work packages:
1. Development of an interdisciplinary analytical framework: An interdisciplinary framework was developed to examine how social and economic stratification both shape and are reinforced by climate adaptation practices. The framework provided the conceptual basis for the project’s empirical research.
2. Completion of research design and instruments: The framework was translated into a mixed-methods research design through the identification of key variables and indicators, development of the sampling strategy, and design of the household survey and semi-structured interview guides. These were tested and refined through a pilot study ahead of the main data collection.
3. Completion of empirical research and data collection: Research was conducted in two villages in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra over two phases, from September to December 2024 and from May to July 2025. This generated empirical data comprising a household survey and semi-structured interviews with members of cotton-farming households and key informants, including farmer activists, journalists, representatives of climate-focused NGOs and other local institutions.
4. Data processing, analysis and development of findings: Following fieldwork, survey data were cleaned, coded and analysed, while qualitative interviews were translated, transcribed and analysed. The quantitative and qualitative evidence was used as complementary sources of. This analysis is informing the preparation of the project’s academic publications and policy-oriented outputs.
5. Refinement and wider application of the analytical framework: The empirical findings have informed the refinement of the project’s analytical framework, particularly by highlighting the importance of gender and household dynamics and community relations. The next stage will use macro-level data to assess whether patterns identified at village level are also evident at a larger scale, providing a basis for assessing the wider applicability and transferability of the analytical approach.

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

The empirical research has generated several findings that extend existing understandings of climate vulnerability and adaptation. The main results are:
1. Climate change can deepen existing inequalities. Processes of loss and accumulation can occur within the same community faced with the same climate uncertainty: while some households experience declining production, rising debt and loss of assets, others are better positioned to absorb shocks and maintain or strengthen their economic position.
2. Climatic uncertainty can deepen cycles of debt. Climatic disruption creates additional and often urgent needs for borrowing, often from informal sources, as farmers need to finance repeated sowing and irrigation, pay for additional inputs and compensate for unexpected crop loss. Existing debt, in turn, leaves households with fewer resources to finance subsequent cultivation and cope with future climatic shocks, creating a cycle in which climatic uncertainty and indebtedness reinforce each other.
3. Adaptation strategies are differentiated within farming communities. Adaptation practices vary substantially within the same rural community, particularly according to landholding size and access to non-farm earnings. Exposure to the same climatic conditions can therefore produce markedly different responses and outcomes.
4. Climatic uncertainty has consequences beyond agricultural production. The qualitative research shows how climatic uncertainty extends from the farm into household and community life, affecting psychological wellbeing, marriage and household formation, migration and community cohesion.
5. Climate change is contributing to a gendered redistribution of agricultural responsibility. The study identifies how male out-migration and climatic uncertainty can transfer greater responsibility for cultivation to women, without a corresponding redistribution of decision-making authority and access to resources.
6. Community-based adaptation faces important constraints. Shared exposure to climatic risks does not necessarily generate collective adaptation. The study shows a strong preference for individual responses, even where problems such as water management require collective action. Differences in landholding and economic position can constrain such action, particularly where climate pressures intensify disputes over access to shared resources. Climatic uncertainty can therefore increase the need for collective responses while simultaneously intensifying pressures that make such action more difficult.
7. Remaining in farming does not necessarily mean successful adaptation. Despite growing climatic uncertainty, many farmers prefer to remain in agriculture because opportunities outside farming remain limited. Continued cultivation may therefore reflect a lack of viable alternatives rather than successful adaptation to climate change. This raises a broader question: under what conditions can small-scale farming continue and be sustained in the face of climate change.
The next stage will combine the empirical findings with larger-scale data to assess whether the patterns identified in Maharashtra are also evident at a larger scale.