Marine climate change refugia fOr insulAr mesophotic ecosystems iN the south pAcific ocean

Project Information

MOANA

Grant agreement ID: 101107435

DOI

10.3030/101107435

Project terminated on 15 December 2024

EC signature date 1 March 2023

Start date 1 April 2023

End date 31 March 2025

Funded under

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 181 152,96

Coordinated by

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MOANA (Marine climate change refugia fOr insulAr mesophotic ecosystems iN the south pAcific ocean)

Reporting period: 2023-04-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The mesophotic coral ecosystems are described as warm water light-dependent corals and associated communities inhabiting depths from 30 m to over 150 m in tropical and subtropical regions. These ecosystems present high ecological relevance as they can act as potential re-seeding areas for shallow ecosystems, harbor endemic and rare species, and provide suitable habitats to support the populations of many species of fishes and crustaceans. MOANA will address the knowledge gaps in how these ecosystems respond to climate-related stressors in the remote South-Pacific oceanic islands and seamounts by providing maps of future refugia and vulnerable areas for a selection of ecologically and socio-economically relevant species. The innovative approach envisaged in MOANA, using global high-resolution Earth System Model outputs, combined with Species Distribution Models, will provide essential information to assist in the implementation of adaptation and mitigation policies in South Pacific areas through the potential creation of marine protection tools as Mobile Marine Protected Areas and/or Blue corridors. Moreover, MOANA methodology and tools could be easily applied to assist other ecosystem preservation in similar areas, such as the Small Island Developing States (e.g. Caribbean Islands, North Pacific Islands), large-scale systems from the North Pacific (Marquise Islands- American Samoa - Hawaii - Japan), middle scale systems from the Atlantic basin (Azores, Madeira, Canarias) and even smaller scale systems from the Mediterranean (Baleares, Corse, Sicily, Cerdenya, Malta). Two leading Research Centers will be involved in the project, the Host Institution, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC, Spain), and the Ecology and Sustainable Management of Oceanic Islands, (ESMOI, Chile), a research center focused on biodiversity and local management of the southeast Pacific islands.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

7 relevant mesophotic species (based on their ecological and/or socio-economic importance) were selected: Kyphosus sectatrix, Pseudocaranx dentex, Heteropriacanthus cruentatus, Porites lobata, Cycloseris vaughani, Monetaria caputdraconis, Panulirus pascuensis. Faunistic data have been processed and stored as csv and excel files stored in the internal ES GitLab.

3 different historical models have been selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – CMIP6 to compare if the current species distribution is differently represented based on the chosen model. Additionally, to the Historical environmental data, they have been selected considering that all of them have the data for future 3 scenarios (i.e. low, medium, and high emissions scenarios, ssp2-4.5/ssp3-7.0/ssp5-8.5). The historical models and future scenarios selected are: IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR; MIROC.MIROC-ES2L and MPI-M.MPI-ESM1-2-LR.

The researcher processed the above-mentioned data to generate historical and forecast values of absolute max, max mean, and max_std and absolute_min, min_min and min_std for the period 2000-2020, 2021-2060 and 2061-2100. The resolution of the input data is 1º (aprox. 100km) and at global scale in 3D (31 depth levels in the ocean). Environmental variables considered were temperature (thetao), ph, nitrates (no3), and oxygen (O2). Due to space limitations, these pre-processed data are stored as .nc files format in the BSC Cluster. Secondly, the researcher generated a set of 2D .nc files of the ocean bottom layer for all the variables (thetao, ph, no3, O2) and values (absolute max, max mean, and max_std and asolute_mi, min_min and min_std) for all the models, scenarios and time periods. That was achieved by using a high-resolution bathymetry (ETOPO_2022_v1_60s_N90W180) and extracting the exact value of the model for each of the bathymetry lat-lon-depth, increasing the accuracy of the data from 100km to 2km. All of them are being stored separately as .ascii files at the BSC Cluster.

The use of historical data and forecast for different emissions scenarios (low ssp4-3.4 medium ssp2-4.5 and high ssp3-7.0) in addition of the faunistic information are being processed with MAXENT (maximum entropy modeling software) and GLOSSA (global species spatiotemporal analysis software) to generate maps of present and future suitable habitats to determine potential future climate refugia. Also, environmental drivers’ importance is being calculated. When all the final maps of species suitable habitats and environmental variables importance will be obtained, they will be stored as. ascii files for scientific and .jpg for outreach purposes

In addition to final data (environmental + faunistic) every process code and explanation of how to use it (Readme files) are being stored in the internal ES GitLab, and when completed they will be stored in public repositories like Zenodo and EuDat.

Project MOANA concluded 3.5 months ahead of schedule due to the researcher securing a long-term position as an Established Researcher at BSC. However, all activities, tasks, and objectives non-completed will continue until completion, as the principal investigator's permanent position aligns perfectly with the project's main goals.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The pre-processing of environmental data resulted in 144 files for each of the three CMIP6 models, totaling 432 files. Each input data file has a resolution of 1° (approximately 100 km) on a global scale in 3D.

Secondly, the researcher generated a set of 2D .nc files representing the ocean bottom layer for all 432 files. This was accomplished using high-resolution bathymetry data (ETOPO_2022_v1_60s_N90W180) to extract the exact model values for each bathymetry latitude-longitude-depth point (Fig. 3), increasing data accuracy from 100 km to 2 km. All processed files are stored separately in .ascii format on the BSC Cluster.

A first paper, documenting the first records of an entire family of carnivorous ascidians (Family Octacnemidae) in the Southeast Pacific, collected during the oceanographic cruise, has been submitted to the Bulletin of Marine Science. A second paper, focusing on the comparison of environmental niches and distribution across different CMIP6 models, is currently in preparation.

Figure of the data improvement with clipped bathymetry

Meeting with the local UEPA

Marine litter presentation to the local community

MOANA presentation to the local community

Example of the 3 models (IPSL, MPI, MIROC) for the maximum temperature (max_max_thetao), for each ex

Outreach at school San Sebastian de Aviki