Project description
Looking at leaf phenology to understand environmental controls
Leaf phenology – the timing of budburst, leaf unfolding, maturation, and senescence – is critical for carbon cycle models. However, the environmental factors controlling leaf phenology are poorly understood. Despite centuries of research, current approaches fail to capture species-specific variability and microclimatic influences, leading to inaccurate predictions of forest responses to climate change. This uncertainty undermines carbon budget estimates, and compromises our ability to assess forest resilience. In this context, the ERC-funded LEAFPACE project proposes a paradigm shift in understanding leaf phenology. It aims to elucidate the biophysical and ecophysiological controls across scales. Key innovations include monitoring microclimatic controls on phenology, identifying links to species strategy, quantifying collimating factors across scales, and developing new models.
Objective
Leaf phenology, the study of the seasonal timing and drivers of budburst, leaf unfolding, maturation and senescence, is the starting point of land carbon (C) cycle models, driving C allocation between organs, and thus largely controlling C budget estimates. It is often cited as one of the largest uncertainties in future climate predictions. Despite centuries of research, the environmental control of leaf phenology is still not fully understood. State-of-the-art approaches empirically relate phenophases to macroclimatic air temperature, unable to capture conditions sensed by the tree (microclimate) or species-specific variability. This translates into models unable to accurately reproduce forest response to climate change. Understanding why trees grow or shed their leaves is thus key to assessing the resilience of forests.
This project proposes a new paradigm for exploring the biophysical and ecophysiological controls of leaf phenology across scales, based on a unified theory linking phenology to species strategy and the coordination of physiological processes in a limiting environment. Key innovations are: (1) new insight into the microclimatic control of phenology through unprecedented monitoring of the bud/leaf energy budget, (2) the identification of the key links between phenology and species strategy, (3) the quantification of the colimiting factors of leaf phenology across scales, accounting for environmental and physiological processes, and (4) the application of a new generation of models incorporating the biophysical and ecophysiological controls of phenology.
These insights are urgently needed to reduce uncertainties in C cycle estimates and to assess the response of forest to climate within the context of the IPCC. These innovations will unlock several domains to which phenology is central (forestry, agriculture) and open a realm of untapped research questions and applications that require robust forecasting of forest dynamics (drought, fire).
Fields of science
Keywords
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Topic(s)
Funding Scheme
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsHost institution
75007 Paris
France