On the capacity-related side, the consortium worked on mapping the stakeholders of the energy planning process and the human and technical capacity available for modelling. It also started engaging the stakeholders through several in-country workshops. Finally, it trained trainers, connecting them to an international community of practice. Next to this operational side of the work, the project also reserved a space for an initial reflection on how capacity is shared and expanded in capacity development programmes and whether and where biases come up.
As part of the 3E modelling work for the 8 national AU cases, a research protocol was defined. The modelling teams defined the core questions for the modelling and the tools to be used and collected the modelling data, making them or metadata available on Zenodo. Currently developed models focus on:
- Senegal: detailed bottom-up energy demand modelling under various policy scenarios using LEAP; to be followed by a supply study using OSeMOSYS-FlexTool;
- Ethiopia: transport sector decarbonisation using OSeMOSYS;
- Tunisia: green hydrogen and green ammonia production using OSeMOSYS;
- Zambia: reliable and sustainable electricity supply using PyPSA;
- DRC: bottom-up long-term power demand and supply options analysis using LEAP and OSeMOSYS;
- South Africa: interaction between national and sub-national policies and planning with focus on Western Cape, using SATIMGE.
In some cases the modelling toolkit envisaged during proposal stage was changed, based on a review of the needs and the capacity in-country. This testifies to the attempt of keeping the choice of tools truly and effectively open, depending on the assessment of needs. Workflows were created for linking OSeMOSYS and FlexTool via the Spine Toolbox, since the two tools are used in combine in several cases.
One side activity of WP3 is the organisation of monthly webinars to discuss how to model context-specific elements relevant to the AU cases, open to all external interested modellers.
The regional modelling work produced modelling infrastructure, data and a first set of scenarios to look at climate compatible energy strategies across the EU and the AU and related energy trade patterns between the two unions. The infrastructure uses well-established models such as TIAM-ECN and a link between the open TEMBA (The Energy Model Base for Africa) and OSeMBE (Open Source energy Model Base for Europe) models. Noteworthy is the update of the data included in TEMBA using datasets from the CMP, upon inputs by AUDA-NEPAD, which opens the path for the effort of RE-INTEGRATE to complement the insights from the CMP.
The policy analysis produced a literature-based collection and comparison of existing energy policies across the 8 AU countries. The stakeholder engagement acted at the level of connecting with policy makers across the 8 countries, as well as connecting with international and EU networks. Particularly of relevance were the project’s presence at the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform (ECEMP) 2024 and at COP 29. The meta-analysis centred on unpacking modellers’ perceptions of and roles in scenario development, and aims at inducing in the long term a reflection on how modelling processes are carried out.
