Digital Agriculture and Forestry: Understanding the Market to Forecast and Support Future Growth

Project Information

4Growth

Grant agreement ID: 101134855

DOI

10.3030/101134855

EC signature date 23 November 2023

Start date 1 January 2024

End date 31 December 2026

Funded under

• Food, Bioeconomy Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment

Total cost

€ 4 848 348,50

EU contribution

€ 4 848 348,50

Coordinated by

STICHTING WAGENINGEN RESEARCH
Netherlands

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - 4Growth (Digital Agriculture and Forestry: Understanding the Market to Forecast and Support Future Growth)

Reporting period: 2024-01-01 to 2025-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

4Growth (https://4growth-project.eu/) supports the adoption of digital and data-driven solutions in agriculture and forestry by:
1) Assessing the sector’s current status and future trends
4Growth is assessing current and future digital technology uptake in agriculture and forestry, creating a “Digital Agriculture & Forestry Uptake Assessment Grid” for consistent data collection. Insights will be shared via an interactive Visualisation Platform, combining storytelling and market data to show technology use, benefits, and future adoption trends—reducing investment risk and driving uptake.

2) Sharing insights via the 4Growth Visualisation Platform,
4Growth will share key insights via its Visualisation Platform, centred on the Market Monitoring and Forecasting Tool (MMFT), which delivers robust data on digital technology uptake and profitability to reduce investment risk. A Foresight Module evaluates how changing conditions may affect adoption, integrating field data, macroeconomic trends, and scenarios to give the most comprehensive market view yet—helping users assess how policies and economic shifts could shape future uptake.

3) Gathering extensive ground truth data and identifying uptake barriers
4Growth is supporting its market analysis with ground truth data collected through its distributed “4Growth Observatories.” Managed by expert partners, these observatories will leverage broad networks to cover all aspects of digital agriculture and forestry across Europe, enabling co-creation and ongoing knowledge exchange between the project and local ecosystems.

4) delivering key policy recommendations and best practices.
4Growth is creating policy recommendations and best practices to boost digital technology adoption, analysing governance, data sharing, and socio-economic drivers. Leveraging field data, the MMFT, and foresight tools, it will guide policies and help value chain actors use digital solutions effectively.

The project unites 13 partners from 9 EU Member States with strong expertise in digital agriculture and forestry.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

By M12, 4Growth delivered a state-of-the-art analysis of key agricultural and forestry technologies. It introduced a “digital ecosystem” concept to map innovation networks, data flows, and relationships, and explored advanced monitoring via API data extraction and LLMs. The Visualisation Platform, with its first version developed in M12 and due to upgraded to V2.0 in M22, provides interactive adoption insights, scenario projections, and enhanced filters.

The MMFT, delivered in M11 and updated in M19, integrates scenario modelling validated by Observatory data and links with the Visualisation Platform. Built in Excel, it projects market size, revenues, and user numbers to 2040 at global and EU levels. The Foresight Module adds Horizon Scanning and four scenarios—baseline, sustainable Europe, fragmented Europe, and corporate-dominated Europe—to guide policymaking. Seven national observatories (Belgium, Finland, France, Greece, Lithuania, Netherlands, Spain) support data collection, with wave 1 complete and wave 2 ongoing.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

4Growth aims to deeply understand the complex factors driving or hindering digital technology adoption in agriculture and forestry. Through its 4Growth Observatory Ecosystem, the project analyzes socio-economic, governance, and data-sharing dynamics using rich field-level and macro-economic data. With over 800 unique responses collected so far, it provides unprecedented insights into adoption patterns. A new framework—the Digital Agriculture & Forestry Uptake Assessment Grid—enables robust, cross-sector and cross-regional comparisons. By examining key drivers like economic conditions, policy, and user needs, 4Growth helps explain where and why technologies succeed, guiding smarter investments and policy decisions.

The Market Monitoring and Forecasting Tool and Foresight Module offer a dynamic view of digital agriculture and forestry, tracking current adoption and projecting future trends and disruptions. These tools equip stakeholders with real-time data and evidence-based forecasts to support informed decisions. With no comparable system available, 4Growth provides a uniquely valuable approach to guiding the sector’s digital future.

4Growth is developing an online platform offering the most comprehensive view of digital technology adoption in agriculture and forestry. By consolidating thousands of field-level data points across Europe, the 4Growth Visualisation Platform provides an interactive overview of adoption trends, high-impact technologies, future developments, and replicable successes. Users can explore by technology, subsector, region, or view cross-regional insights and success stories.

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