Project description
Innovative framework for climate attribution of extreme events
Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme weather events, such as storms, heatwaves, and droughts, causing devastating impacts on society. Climate attribution involves linking extreme events, natural variability, and human-induced climate change to raise awareness and enhance preparedness. The EU-funded COMPASS project aims to develop a flexible framework for climate and impact attribution for various types of hazards. This addresses the transition from single-driver extremes to complex ones and facilitates a shift to an impact-centred perspective. The project uses event-based modelling, weather-type analysis, and contextualised storylines to effectively communicate attribution results. The framework will be validated using historical and current use cases, providing the scientific foundation for operational deployment. It is designed to be modular, scalable, and transferable.
Objective
Climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as storms, heatwaves and droughts. Such events can have devastating societal impacts, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the most impactful disasters are often the result of a complex interplay of multiple physical and societal drivers. Climate attribution, which examines the causal links between extreme events, natural variability, and anthropogenic climate change, can help to unravel this complexity and thereby promote societal preparedness and awareness for climate change impacts. The COMPASS project aims to develop a harmonised, yet flexible, methodological framework for climate and impact attribution of various hazard types. COMPASS will go beyond the current frameworks by bridging the gap from the attribution of single-driver extremes to the attribution of more complex extremes (that is compound, sequences and cascading hazard events) and enabling a shift from a hazard-centred analysis to an impact-centred perspective. Main novelties include event-based hazard and impact modelling using a multi-scale approach, the use of weather type analysis for better understanding the physical drivers that give rise compound extremes, and the use of contextualized storylines to communicate attribution results. The framework will be validated and applied to a set of use cases that cover historical extremes for various hazard types and impact context as well as extreme events happening during the project. COMPASS will lay the scientific foundation for the operational deployment as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Services. The project will create a modular and scalable framework for on-the fly analysis, and thus transferable to other extremes and regions. To promote uptake of the project’s results, data, methods and tools will be made openly available, a web-based demonstrator will showcase the results of the use cases, and clear guideline for attribution will be developed.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.2.4 - Digital, Industry and Space
MAIN PROGRAMME
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HORIZON.2.4.10 - Space, including Earth Observation
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL4-2023-SPACE-01
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
2629 HV Delft
Netherlands
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.