COMPound extremes Attribution of climate change: towardS an operational Service

Informations projet

COMPASS

N° de convention de subvention: 101135481

DOI

10.3030/101135481

Date de signature de la CE 17 Novembre 2023

Date de début 1 Janvier 2024

Date de fin 31 Mars 2027

Financé au titre de

• Digital, Industry and Space

Coût total

Aucune donnée

Contribution de l’UE

€ 2 293 610,83

Coordonné par

STICHTING DELTARES
Netherlands

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Documents, reports (12)

Report documenting the developments in conditional attribution and results from initial application

Report on attribution methods extended for compound/sequential events including use cases.

Report on understanding of weather types and large-scale climate drivers

Accompanying report of D2.3 with assessment of the weather type dataset including temporal changes and stationarity

Policy attribution Briefs I

A series of policy briefs, tailored to specific audiences, communicating the attribution findings and discussing their relevance for informing policies and planning around adaptation, loss and damage, or disaster recovery.

Plan for the exploitation and dissemination of results including communication activities

Drafting of the plan for the exploitation and dissemination of results including communication activities, to ensure the coherent streamlining of the project outputs into targeted high-quality dissemination products, and their dissemination to specific target audiences.

Hazard and Impact Synthesis and Attribution for Phase I use case

Report and accompanying data for the impact and climate attribution studies, covering each of the use cases.

Storylines connecting hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts to decision-making for Phase I

Report providing the storylines covering the use cases from Phase I.

Report on dataset on best-available methods and climate datasets

A report describing the data requirement and inventory of best-available data and methods that can be used of climate attribution studies and weather types; made available for WP4.

Draft Guidelines for compound extreme modelling

Report describing the data and model requirement and inventory of best-available data and methods; made available for WP2

Policy attribution Briefs II

A series of policy briefs, tailored to specific audienc II communicating the attribution findings and discussing their relevance for informing policies and planning around adaptation, loss and damage, or disaster recovery.

Guidance note on qualitatively assessing vulnerability, including non-climate compounding factors, in attribution studies

The report synthesises the findings of literature review and interviews with experts and develops guiding principles to conduct real-time, qualitative vulnerability analysis, including non-climate compounding factors, in attribution studies, in an impact-based attribution case (WP4).

Report on recommendations for attribution methods suitable for compound events with damaging impacts

Synthesising the results from T2.1 - 2.4 to provide tailored recommendations for other work packages, the scientific community and wider stakeholders.

Report on integration of datasets and models

Report on integration of datasets and models, including a conceptual model of the workflow

Other (1)

Statistics-based counterfactual climate data toolbox

The toolbox for generating counterfactual climate data based on GMT change is deposited in a public online repository.

Data sets, microdata, etc (4)

Exposure datasets at multiple scales

exposure data, e.g. land use, population, GDP and asset value, are deposited in a public repository, in addition to improved exposure model HANZE.

Dataset of tropical cyclone-affected areas

Dataset with factual footprints of all historical tropical cyclones (both use cases and beyond) will be added to an online public repository.

Counterfactual dataset of tropical cyclone-affected areas

Counterfactual footprints of all historical tropical cyclones (both use cases and beyond) will be added to an online public repository, to accompany the factual footprints (D1.3).

Dataset on weather types and large-scale climate drivers

A set of weather pattern data and large-scale circulation metrics for climate-model data to be made available for WP1 and conditional attribution tasks in this package.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

COMPASS website

Development and maintenance of the COMPASS website (to be maintained for 5 more years after the project ends, and used to disseminate updates on activities, deliverables, interesting news/posts, events, etc.).

Data Management Plan (1)

Data Management Plan Version 1

COMPASS Data Management Plan Version 1.

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (7)

Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

Auteurs: Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 11, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/SCIADV.ADT7068

CLIMB: Framework for CLIMate data bias-adjustment and downscaling

Auteurs: Jakub Śledziowski, Paweł Terefenko, Andrzej Giza, Kamran Tanwari, Dominik Paprotny
Publié dans: SoftwareX, Numéro 33, 2026, ISSN 2352-7110
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.SOFTX.2025.102479

HANZE v2.1: an improved database of flood impacts in Europe from 1870 to 2020

Auteurs: Dominik Paprotny, Paweł Terefenko, Jakub Śledziowski
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, Numéro 16, 2025, ISSN 1866-3516
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-5145-2024

Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

Auteurs: Thomas Vogt, Simon Treu, Matthias Mengel, Katja Frieler, Christian Otto
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01707-x

Computing extreme storm surges in Europe using neural networks

Auteurs: Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 25, 2025, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-25-4593-2025

Relative sea level projections constrained by historical trends at tide gauge sites

Auteurs: Mahé Perrette, Matthias Mengel
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 11, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/SCIADV.ADO4506

Climate and impact attribution of compound flooding induced by tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique

Auteurs: Doris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Sanne Muis
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 26, 2026, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-26-1417-2026

Conference proceedings (7)

"Storyline climate attribution for compound flooding from tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique. "

Auteurs: Doris Vertegaal, Bart van den hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Simon Treu, Matthias Mengel, Sanne Muis
Publié dans: 2025
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU25-2889

"Supplementary material to ""Climate and impact attribution of compound flooding induced by tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique"""

Auteurs: Doris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Sanne Muis
Publié dans: 2026
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2025-4502-SUPPLEMENT

How mangroves and past land-use change have affected compound flood events in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Auteurs: Joshua Kiesel, Katharina Seeger, Philip Minderhoud, Anaïs Couasnon, Hong Quan Nguyen, Tarun Sadana, Anne Van Loon, Paolo Scussolini
Publié dans: 2025
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU25-15430

Storyline impact attribution of climate and exposure drivers of compound flood impact from tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique

Auteurs: Doris Vertegaal, Bart van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Dominik Paprotny, Sanne Muis
Publié dans: 2026
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU26-1264

Climate and impact attribution of compound flooding induced by tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique

Auteurs: Doris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Sanne Muis
Publié dans: 2025
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2025-4502

Flood generation processes shape fatality and economic losses in Europe

Auteurs: Jiarui Yu, Dominik Paprotny, Ralf Merz, Larisa Tarasova
Publié dans: 2025
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU25-6966

Climate change attribution of the compound 2013/14 winter storms flooding in Somerset, UK

Auteurs: Eloise Matthews, Gregory Munday, Rachel Perks, Daniel Cotterill, Dan Bernie, Anaïs Couasnon, Doris Vertegaal
Publié dans: 2026
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU26-7906

Other (5)

Report on dataset on best-available methods and climate datasets for climate attribution

Auteurs: Cotterill, Daniel; Perks, Rachel; Stott, Peter
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.14732362

COMPASS Plan for the Exploitation and Dissemination of Results Including Communication Activities

Auteurs: Kossida, Maggie; Laskaridou, Sofia; Monokrousou, Klio
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.13890306

Guidelines for compound extremes modelling in current and future climates

Auteurs: Aleksandrova, Natalia; Vertegaal, Doris; Couasnon, Anaïs
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.13890147

COMPASS Policy Attribution Brief I

Auteurs: Jack, Christopher; Vogel, Martha Marie
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.14680930

Scoping report of data and models for impact attribution

Auteurs: Paprotny, Dominik
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.13890251