Scientists suspect that some parts of the Earth system may respond to human activities in drastic, surprising and irreversible ways. The critical forcing level where such events occur are often called "tipping points" (TPs), and the involved subsystems of the Earth "tipping elements" (TEs). The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under ongoing anthropogenic forcing is highly uncertain. In view of the possible irreversibility associated with such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences on climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle suggests decisive mitigation action, and a thorough investigation of the mechanisms, compound or cascading impacts, and the associated risks related to potential tipping events.
ClimTip aims to substantially advance our understanding of possible TEs, to identify unknown tipping events and improved early-warning signals, to quantify impacts of large-scale tipping events on the the Earth’s climate system, on ecosystems and the economy, to identify measures for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies, and to improve public knowledge and awareness of risks associated with TPs.
We provide a methodological framework for characterising and constraining potential TEs from paleoclimate, observational and model data, for identifying unknown tipping potential from observations and models, and for quantifying resilience and its changes in climate and ecosystems, including early warning of forthcoming transitions.
Although Earth system models (ESMs) are the primary tool for projecting climate change, they are not yet reliable in their predictions of possible tipping events. ClimTip helps improve their representation of suggested TEs, and characterises key Earth system TEs in terms of their critical thresholds and rates, hysteresis and overshoot potential, taking into account the associated uncertainties.
As a unique climate service, ClimTip provides global high-resolution bias-corrected climate fields for large-scale tipping events based on storylines of tipping in comprehensive ESMs. The associated impacts on climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, society and economy are assessed globally and put in relation with the 2015 Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030. ClimTip will deliver a comprehensive and precise knowledge basis for tipping-aware risk assessment and for informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results are disseminated to the scientific community, general public, and targeted audiences including policy makers, political activists, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
