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Feedback mechanisms approach to resolve regime shifts in ecological systems.

Project description

Understanding regime shifts in marine environments

Our rapidly changing planet is transforming ecosystems and driving regime shifts, particularly in marine environments. Research aims to understand when (detection), why (drivers), and how (mechanisms) these shifts happen. The ERC-funded FEEDRES project will integrate system dynamics theory and ecology to create a framework for analysing global marine regime shifts. It will map these shifts to evaluate their scope, pinpoint knowledge gaps, and examine key components and interactions within marine systems. Through a two-step modelling approach, the project will develop statistical models to explore how feedback mechanisms drive regime shifts. Ultimately, it will identify common feedback types in marine systems and project the likelihood of future regime shifts under climate change.

Objective

Our planet is changing at a pace never experienced before. Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by multiple anthropogenic pressures and are experiencing abrupt changes, sometimes leading to regime shifts. Marine ecosystems are prone to these dynamics and regime shifts are at the spotlight of research which seeks to reduce the uncertainties related to our incomplete understanding of these processes. Three main questions need to be answered to understand regime shifts: when they happen; i.e. detection, why; i.e. drivers and characteristics, and how; i.e. mechanisms. Present literature has focused mainly on detecting regime shifts, neglecting feedbacks and how ecosystems function. This ignorance has limited the causal understanding of these phenomena and has hindered the capacity to predict them, a fundamental step under global changes. FEEDRES brings feedbacks mechanisms at the fore and aims at responding to all the three challenges to understand and project regime shifts. To fulfil this, FEEDRES will develop a cutting-edge methodological framework combining methods from system dynamics theory and ecology. FEEDRES will follow three steps. 1) Map worldwide marine regime shifts – Through a systematic mapping FEEDRES will assess the extent of regime shifts, highlighting knowledge gaps (when). 2) Empirically study the important structural elements and connections that characterize marine systems under regime shifts (from populations to socio-ecological systems) – FEEDRES will apply a two-step modelling approach to understand how the system change during regime shifts (why). 3) Develop mechanistic models to understand how changes in feedback mechanisms mediate marine regime shifts (how). Based on the knowledge developed FEEDRES will identify common feedback types in marine systems and will project the likelihood of regime shifts. FEEDRES will revolutionise ecosystem science and will increase the understanding on how complex systems behave under cumulative stressors.

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2024-STG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 377 554,00
Address
VIA 8 FEBBRAIO 2
35122 PADOVA
Italy

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Region
Nord-Est Veneto Padova
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 377 554,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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