Project description
How systemic physical climate risks affect economies
Climate change is causing global physical risks, raising concerns about its systemic impacts on the economy. Our understanding of these risks is limited, and outdated data and conventional models hinder scientific progress. The ERC-funded SPHINX project will enhance simulation methods and consolidate new data to understand how systemic physical climate risks develop in socio-economic systems while exploring strategies to mitigate their rising costs. The project will integrate theoretical frameworks that link socio-economic decisions with novel microdata about the expectations of households and businesses, including views on fair distribution of public adaptation resources. Additionally, it will use agent-based modelling to analyse risk contagion and feedback from diverse agents and incorporate bottom-up risk transmission into established macroeconomic models.
Objective
Globally climate change already manifests via physical risks – damages from floods, storms, wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, and sea-level rise. Concerns are rising that these risks may become systemic, adversely affecting the entire socio-economic system. Yet, there is no comprehensive understanding of key processes driving systemic physical climate risks, and surprisingly few quantitative assessments. Scientific progress is hindered by limitations of past data to represent future choices in a changing climate and by the inability of conventional economic models to capture non-linear tipping. To address this gap, SPHINX will fundamentally advance simulation methods and consolidate novel data to understand how systemic physical climate risks emerge in the socio-economic system, and to explore strategies to curtail their spiraling costs. The ground-breaking nature of SPHINX stems from its unique combination of:
1) Theory-based mechanisms hypothesizing causal links in socio-economic systems and decisions under risk;
2) Novel microdata on forward-looking expectations of households and businesses, including diverse views on a fair distribution of public adaptation resources;
3) Advances in agent-based modeling to trace dynamics of cross-scale risk contagion and feedbacks under adaptive expectations of heterogeneous agents;
4) Pioneering methods to integrate bottom-up risk transmission channels into established macroeconomic models conventionally used to trace cascading cross-sectoral and cross-border effects but able to handle marginal changes only.
SPHINX lays the scientific foundations for a new way to account for non-linear tipping in socio-economic systems, significantly advancing methods to elicit systemic physical climate risks, while exploring proactive strategies to avert them for archetypes of European regions. Foreseen impacts reach beyond the domain of physical climate risks to other applications where socio-economic tipping points are crucial.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2024-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
2628 CN DELFT
Netherlands
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.