Descripción del proyecto
Marco para la predicción de tormentas convectivas
Las tecnologías de predicción y vigilancia meteorológica son fundamentales para anticipar y mitigar los efectos de fenómenos atmosféricos peligrosos, con beneficios para diversos sectores. Los riesgos derivados del cambio climático han hecho que su importancia sea cada vez mayor. No obstante, los modelos climáticos y de pronóstico meteorológico presentan limitaciones para predecir el inicio y desarrollo de tormentas convectivas en tierra, que pueden desencadenar fenómenos meteorológicos destructivos. En el proyecto UPDRAFT, que cuenta con el apoyo de las acciones Marie Skłodowska-Curie, se pretende desarrollar un nuevo marco teórico. Este marco integrará mecanismos previamente ignorados, responsables del inicio de las tormentas convectivas, mejorando así la precisión y eficacia de las predicciones meteorológicas.
Objetivo
Developments in numerical weather forecasting have been of great benefit to many sectors of society. However, state-of-the-art weather forecasting and climate models still struggle to predict the onset and development of convective storms over land. Such storms are associated with many destructive weather events including floods, hail, and lightning, and thus, any improvement in addressing these events remains keenly sought after. UPDRAFT will develop a new method for the representation of convective storm clouds in forecasting models, building a completely new theoretical framework that can overcome many of the problems with the current modelling approach. Recent studies by the ER have shown that some key physical mechanisms responsible for the initiation of convective storms are neglected by current models, which might explain the large biases associated with the prediction of these storms. In the new model to be developed during the fellowship, these missing mechanisms will be represented in a more physically-based picture for the development of convective clouds. The main objective of the project is to produce concrete evidence that the new framework can lead to much-improved forecasts of storms. Besides the immediate potential impact for weather prediction, the outcome of the fellowship will also help in improving our understanding of storms and their response to climate change. Convective clouds play an important role in the Earths radiative and hydrological budgets, so the project might help in improving climate models as well, supporting decision-making on adapting to climate change and mitigating the risks associated with many severe weather events.
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Convocatoria de propuestas
(se abrirá en una nueva ventana) HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaRégimen de financiación
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF -Coordinador
RG6 6AH Reading
Reino Unido