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Ecological repercussions of future changes of marine climate extremes at the eastern boundary of the South Atlantic

Project description

Predicting climate impact on southern Africa’s fisheries

Off the coasts of Angola, Namibia, and South Africa, the Angola-Benguela Upwelling System sustains rich fisheries vital to millions. However, every few years, warm or cold extremes (known as Benguela Niños and Niñas) shake this balance, disrupting oxygen levels and nutrient flows, and threatening marine life. As climate change intensifies, the future of these events remains uncertain, largely because existing climate models perform poorly in this region. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the EcoCLimEx project is using a method called ‘emergent constraint analysis’ to improve predictions and assess how marine ecosystems and fish stocks might respond to a changing climate, providing crucial insights for local communities and fisheries in Southern Africa.

Objective

The southeastern Atlantic hosts the Angola Benguela Upwelling System that supports important fisheries for Angola, Namibia, and South Africa. Every few years this region experiences extreme warm and cold events known as Benguela Niños and Niñas, hereafter Benguela variability. These events have great socio-economic importance for the countries of Southern Africa due to their drastic effects on nutrients and oxygen content along the continental shelf, and thus, the marine ecosystem. However, the impact of climate change on Benguela variability and its consequences for the marine ecosystem and economically relevant fish stocks have not been addressed so far. This is because current Earth system models have large errors in the Angola Benguela area that introduce large uncertainties in future climate projections of Benguela variability. EcoCLimEx seeks to address these limitations by applying a new method, namely the emergent constraint analysis, to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections, but also by quantifying the response of local marine biogeochemistry and ecosystem to future changes in the variability. This will facilitate the quantification of future changes in economically relevant fish stocks in this region. EcoCLimEx will be conducted at Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, under the supervision of leading experts in climate dynamics, marine biogeochemistry and fishery. This unique synergy, in addition to the researcher’s own expertise in observational physical oceanography and Benguela variability, will facilitate a mutually beneficial, two-way transfer of knowledge. Collaborations with relevant stakeholders in Angola and Namibia will ensure the full exploitation of EcoCLimEx’s results.

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HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 267 418,56
Address
MUSEPLASSEN 1
5020 Bergen
Norway

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Region
Norge Vestlandet Vestland
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

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