Project description
Understanding the current global trend of autocratisation
Over the past 120 years, the number of countries experiencing waves of democratisation and autocratisation has increased significantly, with the current rise in autocratisation being unprecedented. Consequently, understanding how and why these democratic and authoritarian practices spread in wave-like patterns is crucial. The ERC-funded WAVES project aims to develop a framework to identify these regime transformation waves and theorise the driving forces behind them, with particular attention to zeitgeist, the meaning of democracy in specific contexts. The project will also empirically test the theory and identify factors that contribute to these waves. It will analyse trends since 1900 to clarify when and why these waves begin, peak, and decline, providing insights concerning the current global trend of autocratisation.
Objective
Over the past 120 years, the number of countries affected by waves of democratization and autocratization (Waves of Regime Transformation) has been steadily rising. The current number of countries experiencing autocratization is unprecedented, highlighting the urgency in understanding:
How and why do democratic and authoritarian practices spread across the globe in wave-like patterns?
Project Objectives
1. Develop a conceptual and empirical framework to identify waves of regime transformation.
2. Formulate a theory explaining the driving forces behind these waves. A particular focus is on the role of Zeitgeist - the meaning of “democracy” at a particular time and place - and how it affects waves. The theory also clarifies how such waves propagate across different regions and periods.
3. Test the theory empirically, identifying the drivers behind these waves.
WAVES develops a multi-level framework for studying waves of regime transformation at individual, national, regional, and global levels. It breaks new ground by using an interdisciplinary, mixed-methods approach, combining techniques from evolutionary biology, political science, and computational social sciences. WAVES builds both a conceptual and empirical framework to study the evolution of these waves, applying causal inference methods to explore their drivers. It examines how hegemonic shocks, diffusion, parallel development, and Zeitgeist shape waves of regime transformation. WAVES challenges the assumption that democracy’s meaning is stable over time and tracks the evolution of Zeitgeist using text analysis of parliamentary speeches.
WAVES moves the field forward by developing a theory of regime transformation waves and creating an empirical dataset that traces these waves since 1900. By revealing when and why such waves begin, accelerate, peak, and decline, it provides policymakers with actionable insights helping them understand and respond to the current global wave of autocratization.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) ERC-2025-STG
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10785 BERLIN
Germany
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