Project description
New models for mortality forecasting
Current mortality forecasts are based on extrapolation, which can underestimate or overestimate future longevity. Can including population traits improve prediction accuracy? The ERC-funded LONGFOR project seeks to better understand how mortality has changed (and may continue to change) across Europe. Drawing on health transition theory, it will analyse mortality trends by sex since the 1950s and develop theory-based models to forecast age-specific mortality in the decades ahead. By integrating advanced statistical methods with publicly available data on mortality, population demographics, and socio-economic indicators, the project will contribute to mortality theory and forecasting practices. The findings are expected to offer new insights into mortality, improve forecasting methods, and provide empirical evidence for both societal and scientific applications.
Objective
Current mortality forecasting methods have been shown to systematically underpredict future longevity, and their methodological frameworks are based on time series extrapolation rather than theory or structural models. Given our extensive knowledge of the factors that have shaped mortality trends, a crucial question is whether considering additional traits of the populations analysed can improve prediction accuracy compared to the state of the art.
The goal of LONGFOR is to develop innovative models of past and future mortality for several populations that are informed by the theoretical framework of the health transition theory. To achieve this, LONGFOR will focus on three primary research objectives: (A) to determine whether the mortality transitions of European populations stratified by sex since the 1950s have shared common patterns in terms of their mortality determinants, (B) to develop a novel theory-driven model to describe and forecast age-specific mortality by sex of multiple populations based on their mortality determinants, and (C) to extend this multi-population model to cause-specific mortality forecasting by age and sex.
LONGFOR will achieve these objectives by integrating advanced statistical methods with publicly available data on mortality, fertility, population, causes of death, socio-economic, behavioural and environmental indicators. This ambitious but feasible project has the potential to make ground-breaking contributions to both mortality theory and the practice of mortality forecasting. Specifically, LONGFOR findings will have significant societal and scientific impacts by: (i) providing empirical evidence on current mortality theories, (ii) offering new insights for theoretical and modelling advancements, (iii) contributing innovative methods to forecast mortality, and (iv) improving current forecasts of both all-cause and cause-specific mortality.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
You need to log in or register to use this function
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
-
HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
See all projects funded under this programme
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
See all projects funded under this funding scheme
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2025-STG
See all projects funded under this callHost institution
Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
80539 MUNCHEN
Germany
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.