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Border Change and Local Development in Europe and Beyond

Project description

Border change impact on local development in Europe

Borders do more than divide. They transform. Since 1815, redrawn frontiers from wars and unions have reshaped towns, trade, and lives. But how deeply? The ERC-backed BORDERS project aims to find out. By combining economic history, geography, and AI, researchers will digitise historic maps and track over 200 border changes across Europe and beyond. They will link those shifts to local demographics and commerce, revealing how borders have influenced opportunity, identity, and regional growth. The result is a fresh perspective on how past lines on a map continue to affect communities today.

Objective

Border changes through secession, unification, and territorial transfers have reshaped almost all states in Europe since 1815 and revisionism continues to threaten states worldwide until today. While the causes of border change are well-studied, its consequences for local development have been much less scrutinized. BORDERS therefore analyzes the mechanisms through which border change has affected local development in Europe and beyond over the past two centuries using new theory, data, and methods.

BORDERS’ central contributions are delivered by four work packages (WP). WP1 develops a theory of the impact of border change on socio-economic development through changes in local ethnic demography, economic market exchange, state capacity, and ethnic politics. WP2 produces unparalleled longitudinal data on local development across Europe since the 18th century by using machine learning to measure village-level development from historical survey maps. Additional data from historical administrative and geographic sources will be collected to capture the relevant causal mechanisms. WP3 empirically examines the theory and mechanisms developed in WP1 across the more than 200 border changes in post-1815 Europe using methods for causal inference in geographically disaggregated panel data. WP4 tests the applicability of the theory across a global sample of border changes since 1945, examines contextual factors that explain variation over time and across cases, and investigates divergences with effects observed in historical Europe.

In times of renewed border contestation, BORDERS contributes new theory and robust evidence on the local effects of border change in Europe and beyond. The project enriches debates on long-run development and provides data on historical development in Europe of unprecedented detail. Innovations in map digitization and methods to gauge the generalizability of causally identified micro-level effects contribute to the social sciences more generally.

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(opens in new window) ERC-2025-STG

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Host institution

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 499 956,00
Address
Houghton Street 1
WC2A 2AE London
United Kingdom

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Region
London Inner London — West Westminster
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 499 956,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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