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Predicting the Future of Island Biodiversity: Integrating Traits to Decipher Species Turnover Dynamics

Project description

Forecasting the future of island ecosystems

Global changes are reshaping plant life and shifting climate zones, altering where species can survive. Rising sea levels, changing land use, and the spread of invasive species are transforming natural communities, yet their impact on biodiversity remains unclear. The ERC-funded Isl-Traits project aims to study how these pressures affect coastal islands and fragmented mainland habitats using resampled plant data. Islands host unique biodiversity and are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and invasions, offering insights into habitat fragmentation. By analysing plant traits, the project explores species’ arrivals and disappearances, anticipating future changes under global warming and informing strategies to protect island ecosystems.

Objective

Global change is altering vegetation, with climate zones shifting poleward and species distributions changing. Rising sea levels, land-use change, and invasive species further modify natural vegetation, leading to the reassembly of native communities. However, the rates and patterns of community changes across different vegetation types, along with their consequences for biodiversity, remain unclear. This proposal explores the effects of global change on coastal islands and mainland habitat fragments using resampled vegetation data. Islands, which support unique biodiversity and are particularly threatened by rising sea levels and invasive species, serve as models for understanding the effects of fragmentation on the mainland. The overarching aims of this proposal are to: (i) advance island biogeography by characterizing plant ecological strategies on islands through functional traits, focusing on immigration and extinction dynamics; (ii) describing potential futures under global warming; (iii) compare assemblage dynamics on islands with those in fragmented mainland habitats; and (iv) synthesise findings towards effective conservation strategies for coastal island vegetation. The strengths of this proposal include its focus on islands as simplified systems, the use of a unique dataset with resurveyed vegetation, and the synthesis of findings from both island and mainland habitats. Understanding differences between island and mainland assemblages will be key to predicting the future of island ecosystems.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) ERC-2025-STG

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Host institution

MARTIN-LUTHER-UNIVERSITAT HALLE-WITTENBERG
Net EU contribution
€ 1 499 805,00
Address
UNIVERSITATSPLATZ 10
6108 Halle
Germany
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 1 499 805,00

Beneficiaries (1)