Project description
How Earth’s land will determine the fate of CO2
Cutting emissions is the first step, but the climate will not just reset overnight. The question is whether forests and soil will continue absorbing carbon out of the air or start leaking it back out once emissions peak. The ERC-funded PostPeak project aims to find the answer. It will use satellite data and machine learning to rethink how we model ‘ecological memory’. This is the way past heatwaves or droughts affect a forest’s ability to store carbon years later. The goal is to show exactly what happens to CO2 levels after emissions peak, revealing whether the planet will naturally heal or if the land will continue to drive temperatures up.
Objective
PostPeak tackles the pressing questions surrounding Earth's transition into a post-peak CO2 era. The carbon cycle determines how much of the anthropogenic carbon stays in the atmosphere, and warms the planet. It will also shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO2 once emissions level off, with lingering legacy and hysteresis effects.
I hypothesize the land carbon cycle is the key modulator in this transition, and accurately predicting its dynamics is essential for understanding how the entire climate system will respond to declining CO2 emissions. Despite decades of research, the myriad factors underlying land carbon dynamics remain poorly understood, and uncertainty prevails.
To address this knowledge gap, the project PostPeak introduces a fundamentally new approach to global land carbon modeling, embedded in Earth system models. The approach capitalizes on the rapidly growing body of Earth observations and machine-learning algorithms, guided by process understanding. Using this hybrid model, we can explore the full range of plausible land dynamics, constrained by multi-stream observations, and provide a robust framework for addressing key questions about the post-peak era. Specifically, PostPeak's research aims to: (i) elucidate the spectrum of land dynamics adhering to global observational constraints; (ii) quantify the resulting spill-over effects into the post-peak emission era; (iii) determine how these dynamics modulate the timing and nature of falling CO2 levels; and (iv) identify where and how hysteresis effects impact ecosystems when CO2 is falling.
The liaison of AI-powered land carbon dynamics and versatile Earth system modeling in PostPeak, promises a leap forward in climate-carbon system science and provides an unique opportunity to clarify the land carbon cycle's pivotal role in shaping the rise and fall of atmospheric CO2.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences biological sciences ecology ecosystems
- natural sciences computer and information sciences artificial intelligence machine learning
You need to log in or register to use this function
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
-
HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
See all projects funded under this programme
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
See all projects funded under this funding scheme
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2025-STG
See all projects funded under this callHost institution
Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
80539 MUNCHEN
Germany
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.