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When and where do we reach the limits of adaptation to riverine flood risk?

Objective

As climate change and urbanization of low-lying areas increase flood risk, accelerated flood adaptation by households is urgently required (e.g. elevating homes, flood proofing), in addition to adaptation by the government (e.g. dikes) and insurance (cover residual risk). However, there are limits to the adaptability of societies. For instance, social vulnerability factors such as low income or high age may reduce households’ adaptation efforts leading to higher physical vulnerability of their homes. When societies stop implementing additional adaptation, risk may become ‘intolerable’, and people may have no other option than to leave the area. At this point, ‘adaptation limits’ are reached. For the first time, LIMIT2ADAPT will quantitatively assess where and when the limits of flood adaptation are reached given underlaying vulnerability drivers at the global scale. This information is crucial for prioritizing global adaptation fund investments.

By pursuing four key outputs, LIMI2ADAPT will assess global risk and the adaptation interactions between households, government and insurers. (1) We will develop a ground-breaking global model for simulating flood adaption limits by integrating two state-of-the-art methods from PIs Bates and Aerts: flood risk- and agent-based models. (2) We will use the new model to simulate historical time series (1km2; 1970-2020) of social and physical vulnerability for four selected river basins, using exposure-, survey- and census data (PIs Tate and Kreibich). (3) We will also simulate global projections (1km2; 2020-2100) of vulnerability(-hotspots) and flood risk. These projections will allow the first spatial-temporal simulation of future adaptation limits at the global scale. Discovering where and when limits occur, and how these are shaped by vulnerability dynamics will lead to (4) a new theory on risk assessment and adaptation limits that sets the scene for future research and policy on climate adaptation.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

HORIZON-ERC-SYG - HORIZON ERC Synergy Grants

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) ERC-2025-SyG

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Host institution

GFZ HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR GEOFORSCHUNG
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 2 499 019,00
Address
TELEGRAFENBERG
14473 POTSDAM
Germany

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Region
Brandenburg Brandenburg Potsdam
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 2 499 019,00

Beneficiaries (4)

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