Objective
Climate change, characterised by rising temperatures, extreme rainfall, permafrost thaw, and sea level rise, poses great new challenges for mitigating extreme geohazards like mountain collapses, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions. Many of these extreme events are due to catastrophic failure in fractured media. There is a fundamental and urgent need to reliably predict these catastrophes and minimise their consequences. Extensive evidence indicates that geomaterials commonly incubate progressive failure, characterised by diffuse, gradual, and intermittent deformations, before culminating in catastrophic failure marked by localised, rapid, and runaway rupture. As of today, it remains unresolved why, how, and when progressive to catastrophic failure occurs in fractured media, inhibiting our ability to mitigate various extreme geohazards.
FORECAST proposes that catastrophic failure may be anticipated by analysing the interplay of three fundamental variables across scales in fractured media: heterogeneity (variability of material properties), nonlinearity (intricacy in physical processes), and susceptibility (vulnerability to external perturbations). FORECAST will develop a unified modelling framework to unravel this interplay and enable physics-based, path-dependent probabilistic forecast of the timing of catastrophic events. The framework will be tested on a large database of historical and ongoing geohazard events across seemingly distinct yet mechanistically interconnected contexts of landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes.
Three key questions will be addressed: (i) Why does progressive to catastrophic failure universally occur? (ii) How does failure evolve under variable and uncertain conditions? (iii) When will a catastrophic failure occur? FORECAST’s outcomes will have far-reaching implications for predicting catastrophic events in not only geological and engineered materials, but also social, economic, biological, and environmental systems.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences computer and information sciences databases
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences geology volcanology
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2025-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
751 05 Uppsala
Sweden
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.