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Mitigating Tipping Points in Ecological Networks through Game-Theoretic Approaches

Objective

Ecosystems worldwide face escalating pressures from anthropogenic exploitation and climate change, pushing many closer to abrupt and potentially irreversible tipping points. These can lead to catastrophic biodiversity loss, collapse of ecosystems and long-term socio-ecological instability. Current theoretical frameworks often fall short in capturing the adaptive behaviours of organisms and humans that both influence and respond to environmental change. This project proposes an innovative, interdisciplinary framework that integrates evolutionary game theory, ecological network analysis, and environmental feedbacks to advance our understanding of tipping dynamics and inform robust mitigation strategies. By explicitly modelling dynamic strategy evolution, payoff uncertainty, and feedback-driven interactions among species within structured ecological networks, the project aims to find mechanisms that promote resilience and prevent collapse. We will develop and analyse coupled systems of differential equations incorporating adaptive interactions, stochasticity and nonlinear resource dynamics. The research will identify critical thresholds and characterize the conditions under which targeted, minimal interventions can stabilize ecosystems. A key innovation is the introduction of payoff uncertainty and heterogeneous risk preferences into eco-evolutionary game dynamics, enabling more realistic modelling of individual and collective responses to environmental signals. The project will be empirically anchored through case studies in coral reef and alpine ecosystems, where shifts in species interactions and environmental stressors are well documented. The outcomes of this research are expected to combine theoretical insight with practical relevance, offering new tools for adaptive conservation policy, early warning signal detection and ecosystem management under uncertainty, contributing to the EU’s mission to foster sustainability and resilience in socio-ecological systems.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)

Programme(s)

Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF

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Coordinator

CITY ST GEORGES UNIVERSITY OF LONDON
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 276 187,92
Address
NORTHAMPTON SQUARE
EC1V 0HB LONDON
United Kingdom

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Region
London Inner London — East Haringey and Islington
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

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