Objective
Global food security is increasingly threatened by the rising frequency and geographic spread of climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves, which often lead to simultaneous crop failures across multiple agricultural regions, or breadbaskets. These undermine food system resilience, causing significant production deficits, food shortages, price spikes, and even political instability, threatening the sustainability of social-ecological systems. Despite such severe impacts, the spatiotemporal patterns of yield failure synchronizations and their atmospheric and climatic drivers remain poorly understood, representing a critical knowledge gap for global food security governance.
The SAFE-Drivers project will address this through an innovative approach integrating advanced statistical tools, machine learning, and physical modeling, with a focus on maize, wheat, soybean, and rice. The project will first employ network theory to identify synchronizations of crop failures, based on extensive yield statistics from ~20,000 political units over four decades. Then, causal discovery algorithms and Explainable Artificial Intelligence combined with Earth observations and climate reanalysis will elucidate how atmospheric precursors and local climate factors drive these synchronized failures. Finally, an atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework will be used to explore the spatial propagation of climate extremes and their teleconnected agricultural impacts. The fellowship will also provide crucial interdisciplinary training in sustainability science, enhancing my capacity for independent research leadership in climate-agriculture interactions.
Overall, the project will substantially advance scientific understanding of synchronized crop failures, enhance forecasting capabilities, and provide actionable insights for coordinated agricultural risk management, particularly benefiting food-insecure regions through improved early warning systems.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences sociology governance
- agricultural sciences agriculture, forestry, and fisheries agriculture grains and oilseeds cereals
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
10691 Stockholm
Sweden
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.