Integrated Assessment of Geostructural Fluid Flow and Microbial Methane Oxidation Controls on Arctic Seafloor Carbon Emissions from Climate-Sensitive Hydrate Reservoirs

Objetivo

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have risen sharply in recent decades, complicating climate mitigation efforts. Despite its significance, the role of the Arctic Ocean’s continental margins—storing an estimated 100–9000 GtC—in the global CH4 cycle remains poorly constrained. It is generally assumed that climate-driven CH4 from Arctic hydrates is consumed by microbial oxidation before reaching the atmosphere; however, emerging evidence indicates that significant emissions can bypass these biological filters, altering ocean carbon cycling and contributing directly to atmospheric CH4, potentially triggering positive climate feedbacks. Current models poorly capture critical factors such as geostructural controls on fluid transport (e.g. fracture-facilitated migration), hydrate stability dynamics, variable microbial sink efficiency, and the impact of microbial CH4 oxidation on ocean carbon chemistry and local acidification. This limits accurate assessment of the contribution of climate-sensitive hydrates to atmospheric CH4 and ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange.The SeepingArctic project will help address these gaps by developing an innovative numerical model that integrates geostructural controls on fluid flow, complex hydrate dynamics, and coupled benthic microbial CH4 oxidation processes. Applied to a well-characterized Arctic seep site, this model will quantify the frequency, magnitude, and duration of future CH4 emissions from climate-sensitive hydrate systems and assess their local influence on ocean carbon budgets.By refining local carbon budgets and enhancing predictive capacity, this research will provide critical insights for climate policy and carbon–climate feedback mechanisms. It will also establish my expertise in quantitative bio-geosciences, supporting my long-term goal of scaling up assessments of hydrate-driven seafloor carbon emissions at the global level.