Seismically-induced submarine landslide Assessment and probabilistic Framework for risk-informed siting and damage Evaluation of Offshore Wind turbines

Descripción del proyecto

Energía eólica marina para lograr una Europa con cero emisiones netas

La expansión de la generación de energía eólica marina en Europa está creciendo rápidamente con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos de cero emisiones netas, logrando un total de 300 GW para 2050. Sin embargo, las zonas con alta densidad de turbinas eólicas están expuestas a considerables riesgos geológicos, especialmente a los deslizamientos submarinos en las plataformas continentales. La deformación del lecho marino provocada por los deslizamientos de tierra podría ocasionar graves daños estructurales en las estructuras de las turbinas eólicas. Con el apoyo de las Acciones Marie Skłodowska-Curie, el proyecto SAFE-WIND busca establecer un método probabilístico para evaluar estos riesgos múltiples. Mediante la integración de mapas de susceptibilidad para cada región con modelos de grandes deformaciones y pruebas en centrífuga, se pueden estimar los efectos de los deslizamientos de tierra en las turbinas eólicas.

Objetivo

Offshore wind energy is central to Europe's net-zero transition, with capacity projected to reach 300 GW by 2050. Unlike oil and gas platforms, the limited capacity of individual offshore wind turbines (OWTs) requires large-scale, high-density deployment, placing stringent demands on siting and risk management. Yet continental shelf and slope regions in European seas face multi-hazard threats, particularly seismic submarine landslides (SSLs), which can trigger seabed deformation and impact loads, threatening OWT performance and structural integrity. Despite these risks, current planning rarely integrates SSL susceptibility, and tools to simulate SSL–OWT interactions under seismic loading remain limited, with multiple uncertainties seldom addressed.
SAFE-WIND will establish a probabilistic, multi-scale decision framework linking regional SSL susceptibility with site-specific OWT performance and failure probability. It will (i) compile seismic and landslide databases to produce susceptibility maps for high-risk zone identification and OWT layout optimisation; (ii) employ centrifuge testing and large-deformation modelling (MPM/CFD) to characterise SSL–OWT interactions and quantify key responses such as impact loads, pile displacement, and rotation; and (iii) integrate multiple uncertainties via Monte Carlo simulation, developing physics-informed surrogate models for rapid scenario-based risk assessment after seismic events.
Hosted at the University of Liverpool, with expertise in fluid–structure interaction, stochastic geo-hazard assessment, and OWT structural integrity, and supported by a secondment at HKUST to enhance geotechnical risk assessment and centrifuge modelling, SAFE-WIND will deliver susceptibility maps, validated large-deformation models, and rapid prediction tools. These outcomes will enable risk-informed siting, reliability assessment, and post-earthquake evaluation of OWTs in Europe.