Objective
SEEDS (Socio-Environmental Determinants of Health in Small States) addresses critical gaps in cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk prediction for small EU states. Existing models like SCORE2, developed for large populations, produce systematic bias when applied to countries with populations under two million and do not incorporate environmental exposure data, despite evidence linking PM2.5 to 23% higher ischemic heart disease mortality risk and road traffic noise to 8% increased risk per 10 dB increase.
Small EU states face unique environmental health challenges: Cyprus records PM concentrations substantially exceeding WHO recommendations, while Malta has 68% population exposure to excessive road traffic noise compared to 48% EU average. These concentrated exposures, combined with limited healthcare resources, create disproportionate health impacts requiring targeted prediction approaches.
This 30-month Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellowship will develop and validate the first CMD prediction model specifically designed for small EU states, integrating PM2.5 PM10, and environmental noise exposure with clinical and social determinants using interpretable machine learning methods. The project will harmonize Malta's SAHHTEK cohort (n=1,861) with EHIS Wave 3 datasets from Cyprus, Estonia, and Latvia, linked to environmental exposure data from European monitoring networks.
External validation across Cyprus and Estonia will demonstrate model transportability. A 6-month placement at HealthAI will translate the model into a clinical decision support tool prototype.
Expected outcomes include 10% improvement in prediction accuracy, potentially preventing 4,400+ premature deaths annually. Conducted at University of Malta's Islands and Small States Institute, with secondments at WHO and Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences sociology demography mortality
- medical and health sciences health sciences public health epidemiology
- natural sciences computer and information sciences artificial intelligence machine learning
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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MSD 2080 MSIDA
Malta
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.