Project description
AI weather prediction models against complex circulation patterns
Advancements in AI and the development of kilometre-scale, physics-based models for resolving deep convection have led to weather prediction systems that often outperform existing global models and offer greater predictability. Unfortunately, despite these technological advancements, AI-based systems have been observed to experience similar declines in forecasting skill during complex scale-coupled circulation patterns, where high-impact weather events are often present. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the UPDAP project will conduct the first systematic intercomparison of physics-based and AI-based models to assess their efficiency in capturing convection-jet stream coupling and how this coupling affects European forecasting predictability.
Objective
Operational weather prediction is entering a hybrid era, combining rapidly developing global AI-based models with a new generation of kilometer-scale physics-based models that explicitly resolve deep convection. AI-based systems often outperform current global models that parameterize convection on standard forecast skill metrics, while kilometer-scale models promise improved predictability through more realistic representations of mesoscale processes. However, major uncertainties remain regarding how these emerging paradigms simulate and predict complex, scale-coupled circulation patterns. A critical example is the interaction between organized mesoscale convection over North America and the jet stream. In contemporary physics-based models, misrepresentation of this coupling is a well-known driver of sudden degradation in forecast skill over Europe, often coinciding with high-impact weather events. Recent evidence indicates that global AI-based models are also vulnerable to sharp drops in European forecast skill when circulation patterns favor convection–jet stream coupling. Thus, both AI-based and physics-based approaches introduce significant uncertainty for forecast users, particularly during high-impact weather events. This makes it essential to conduct process-level evaluations across modelling paradigms to uncover the mechanisms within these circulation patterns that trigger rapid forecast error growth. UPDAP will provide the first systematic intercomparison of AI-based and physics-based models (including kilometer-scale models) to determine how well they capture convection–jet stream coupling and its influence on European predictability. The project’s outcomes will deliver actionable insight forecast data users, guiding the safe and reliable integration of AI and kilometer-scale physics models into future operations.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
This project's classification has been human-validated.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
This project's classification has been human-validated.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
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