Trace metals in Speleothems – Advancing paleotempestology using a novel geochemical proxy of tropical cyclone activity | PaleoTraCeS | Proyecto | Ficha informativa | HORIZON | CORDIS

Objetivo

Tropical cyclones drive the deadliest and wettest extremes globally, yet their long-term variability remains critically uncertain due to fundamental data-model gaps that paleoclimatology could uniquely resolve. This groundbreaking project establishes speleothem transition metals as the first universally-applicable, quantitative proxy for tropical cyclone activity, revolutionizing paleotempestology through mechanistic innovation. The breakthrough exploits systematic relationships between storm-driven extreme precipitation, enhanced soil organic matter mobilization, and trace metal transport into precisely-dated cave archives spanning multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. Three pioneering objectives drive the research: developing the first mechanistically-constrained proxy system models encoding storm rainfall to speleothem incorporation processes, generating unprecedented multi-basin tropical cyclone reconstructions extending across hundreds of millennia through past warm periods, and quantifying climatic drivers of storm variability to provide validation targets for next-generation Earth System Models. The methodological transformation integrates real-time cave monitoring networks, sub-annual resolution geochemical analysis, and hybrid proxy system modelling to establish transferable calibration protocols across diverse karst environments. Milestone outputs include the first quantitative multi-basin tropical cyclone database spanning orbital timescales, validated open-access proxy system models enabling global community application, and actionable constraints on climate-storm relationships that will fundamentally reshape hazard assessment, climate projections, and adaptation strategies. This flagship project transforms paleotempestology into a quantitative discipline while establishing European leadership in extreme event paleoclimatology, ultimately serving billions in cyclone-prone regions through improved understanding of long-term climate-storm dynamics.