Objective
Greenland’s sea-level rise contribution hinges on how much surface meltwater is stored in firn, the layer of porous snow that has not yet turned into ice, versus how much runs off into the ocean. As climate warms, the firn’s buffering capacity is shrinking rapidly. Yet, state-of-the-art regional climate model projections diverge, by up to a factor of two when estimating ice sheet mass loss by 2100. The root cause lies in firn hydrology: the three-dimensional, time-evolving physics of meltwater pathways and key physical thresholds that steer the system between storage and runoff are poorly observed and understood, and consequently, current firn models collapse these 3D processes into unconstrained ad hoc1D column rules.
FIRN3D closes this gap and delivers a paradigm shift in how meltwater–firn interactions are understood, modeled, and predicted by resolving the governing 3D processes that control storage versus runoff, and translating them into tested 1D parameterizations for Greenland-wide prediction.
We will (i) build the first autonomous cross-borehole radar tomography system to map meltwater pathways through entire melt seasons in undisturbed firn; (ii) obtain season-long 4D (3D time-series) datasets at contrasting sites to identify the physical processes that govern storage versus runoff, and (iii) develop a process-resolving 3D firn model constrained by these data to extract quantitative thresholds and scaling laws, and then translate them into tested, physics-informed 1D parameterizations ready for operational firn models.
To date, no such end-to-end framework has been undertaken. FIRN3D replaces proxy inference with resolved process physics and turns it into validated rules for use at ice-sheet scale, delivering the tools for sharper, more trusted Greenland runoff projections and addressing a leading uncertainty in near-term sea-level rise.
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Keywords
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2026-STG
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1350 Kobenhavn K
Denmark
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