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Modeling microclimate dynamics to uncover drivers of long-term vegetation change

Objective

How plant communities respond to climate change remains uncertain: while global warming is accelerating, vegetation often exhibits inconsistent shifts. This mismatch suggests that other factors mediate plant community dynamics. A key candidate is microclimate: local conditions experienced by plants, shaped by canopy, terrain, and other habitat features, which can buffer or amplify regional macroclimate changes. Yet, the importance of microclimate in shaping long-term vegetation dynamics remains poorly understood. A major barrier is the lack of historical reconstructions of microclimate conditions, which makes it difficult to assess whether plant communities are tracking, lagging, or decoupled from climatic changes. This project addresses this gap by combining unique datasets of vegetation plots resurveyed after multiple decades across central Europe, with advanced mechanistic modeling used to reconstruct past microclimate conditions. Historical microclimate measurements recorded simultaneously with the original vegetation surveys provide an exceptional opportunity to validate these models. The main goals are: (1) to quantify long-term vegetation thermophilization and associated turnover in plant community composition; (2) to reconstruct, validate, and compare macro- and microclimatic trends; and (3) to test the relative importance of climate and local habitat features in driving vegetation thermophilization and turnover. The project will achieve these aims through advanced statistical and modeling approaches combined with large and long-term datasets. The fellowship will build excellence and independence by training the researcher in vegetation and climate data analysis, open science, and project management. A secondment will provide complementary skills in mechanistic modeling. Results will clarify the drivers and pace of vegetation changes, providing new knowledge for biodiversity monitoring, conservation, and climate adaptation strategies in Europe and beyond.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-WIDERA-2025-TALENTS-01

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Coordinator

BOTANICKY USTAV AV CR, V.V.I.
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 207 758,16
Address
ZAMEK 1
25243 Pruhonice
Czechia

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Region
Česko Střední Čechy Středočeský kraj
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

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