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Modeling microclimate dynamics to uncover drivers of long-term vegetation change

Project description

Reconstructing past microclimates to understand vegetation responses to climate change

Climate change is reshaping plant communities, but local microclimates can influence how vegetation responds to climate change. Because historical microclimate data are scarce, it remains unclear how strongly local conditions have influenced changes in plant communities over time. The EU-funded MicroClimChange project is combining decades-old vegetation data from central Europe with unique historical microclimate measurements and advanced modelling to reconstruct past microclimates. Its goals include quantifying vegetation thermophilisation, examining shifts in plant communities, and assessing the influence of climate and local features on these changes. The project will train the fellow in data analysis, project management and microclimate modelling, ultimately improving predictions of biodiversity responses to climate change in Europe and beyond.

Objective

How plant communities respond to climate change remains uncertain: while global warming is accelerating, vegetation often exhibits inconsistent shifts. This mismatch suggests that other factors mediate plant community dynamics. A key candidate is microclimate: local conditions experienced by plants, shaped by canopy, terrain, and other habitat features, which can buffer or amplify regional macroclimate changes. Yet, the importance of microclimate in shaping long-term vegetation dynamics remains poorly understood. A major barrier is the lack of historical reconstructions of microclimate conditions, which makes it difficult to assess whether plant communities are tracking, lagging, or decoupled from climatic changes. This project addresses this gap by combining unique datasets of vegetation plots resurveyed after multiple decades across central Europe, with advanced mechanistic modeling used to reconstruct past microclimate conditions. Historical microclimate measurements recorded simultaneously with the original vegetation surveys provide an exceptional opportunity to validate these models. The main goals are: (1) to quantify long-term vegetation thermophilization and associated turnover in plant community composition; (2) to reconstruct, validate, and compare macro- and microclimatic trends; and (3) to test the relative importance of climate and local habitat features in driving vegetation thermophilization and turnover. The project will achieve these aims through advanced statistical and modeling approaches combined with large and long-term datasets. The fellowship will build excellence and independence by training the researcher in vegetation and climate data analysis, open science, and project management. A secondment will provide complementary skills in mechanistic modeling. Results will clarify the drivers and pace of vegetation changes, providing new knowledge for biodiversity monitoring, conservation, and climate adaptation strategies in Europe and beyond.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) HORIZON-WIDERA-2025-TALENTS-01

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Coordinator

BOTANICKY USTAV AV CR, V.V.I.
Net EU contribution
€ 207 758,16
Address
ZAMEK 1
25243 Pruhonice
Czechia
Region
Česko Střední Čechy Středočeský kraj
Activity type
Research Organisations
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Total cost
No data

Partners (1)