Expert system based predictions of demand for internal transport in Europe

Información del proyecto

EXPEDITE

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 11463

Proyecto cerrado

Fecha de inicio 16 Marzo 2004

Fecha de finalización 31 Octubre 2002

Financiado con arreglo a

• Programme for research technological development and demonstration on "Competitive and sustainable growth 1998-2002"

Coste total € 1 776 445,00

Aportación de la UE € 1 705 045,00

Coordinado por

STICHTING RAND EUROPE
Netherlands

Exploitable results

Full speed ahead: Enhanced expedited services

A more efficient, safe and environmentally friendly use of available infrastructures requires an appropriate management of traffic flows. The three main aims of the Expedite project in this respect are: 1. to contribute to the development, integration and validation of advanced traffic management systems, including the exchange between and the use of information systems; 2. to establish a coherent, integrated transport management systems architecture across the transport chain; 3. to fine tune demand management tools and policies and facilitate their deployment. The results of the project derive from the execution of runs with the models and concern the effectiveness of policy measures implemented. The results can be grouped into two themes: freight transport and passenger transport. 1) Freight transport - In the period 1995-2020, under the assumptions of the reference scenario, the number of tonnes lifted in the study area will increase by 44 % (lorry +39 %) and tonne –kilometrage will grow by 79 % (lorry +89 %). A higher growth is predicted for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), for long distance transport and for general cargo. - If lorry costs increase, there will only be significant shifts at trip distances above 100 kilometres. Below 100 kilometres, road transport is the dominant mode. Policy measures are unable to change this situation below 100 kilometres: it is an insensitive market segment. - If the lorry transport time goes up, there will also be only significant mode shifts for consignments above 100 kilometres. For this change in transport conditions, most of the substitution is towards combined road-rail transport, but also to conventional rail transport. - If the rail/combined transport cost or time decreases, then for fuels and ores, metal products, basic and other chemicals, large machinery (but only above 100 kilometres) there will be a significant decline in lorry tonne-kilometrage, but a shift will also take place from inland waterways transport (where this mode exists). - If the cost or time of inland waterways transport decrease, then there will only be a significant reduction of lorry transport for specific. - If the sea shipping cost or time goes down, there will only be small shifts towards sea transport and no significant reduction for lorry. - In passenger transport an increase in transport time by x % has a bigger impact than an increase in transport cost by x %. This is not generally true in freight transport; in many situations an x % change in cost has a bigger impact than an x % change in time. - Elasticities keep increasing with distance after 100 kilometres (especially time elasticities). - Changes in tonne-kilometres are bigger than changes in tonnes for lorry, while the changes are close to being equal in tonnes and tonne-kilometres for rail and inland waterways. This shows that goods would mostly be transferred between modes in consignments where trip lengths are longer than average lorry trips. - The most effective policy measures to achieve substitution from road to other modes are: a. Increases in lorry cost for all or the higher distances (congestion and road pricing, infrastructure tariff, cost internalisation, kilometre charging, fuel price increase); b. Increase in lorry time (maximum speed limits, harmonisation of rules on speeding); c. Decrease in non-road handling and storage cost (intermodality and interconnectivity). - Policies that make the non-road modes cheaper or reduce the travel times on the non-road networks are less effective for reducing lorry tonne -kilometrage; often they also lead to substitution between the non-road modes. - Effective policy bundles should contain elements of the three most effective policies (increased cost and time for road, lower non-road handling and storage cost). Decreasing the non-road travel times and cost can only have a substantial effect on substitution away from the road mode if the bundle includes measures that make all non-road modes more attractive. Otherwise, there will be a large amount of substitution between the non-road modes. - To make polices effective the target segment should be shipments above 100 kilometres. Also policies targetted at bulky products are more effective for substitution from road to the other modes than policies focussing on other commodities. - Increasing the lorry cost (one of the three effective types of policy mentioned above) leads to increases in the cost for the users of transport, which according to the evaluation carried out, are not compensated by the reduction in external cost for society as a whole (emissions, noise, accidents). On the other hand this type of policy increases government revenues. - Policies that increase the lorry transport time (another of the three effective types of policies) increase the time cost of transport users, but decrease the driving cost of the user and the external cost (because of substitution from road to modes that are cheaper and have lower external cost). The total internal and external costs remain more or less the same, according to Expedite evaluation. - Intermodality and interconnectivity, simulated as a decrease in handling and storage cost (the third of the above effective policies) reduce both internal user cost and external cost of transport. These policies however require substantial investments in infrastructure and do not generate government revenues. 2) Passenger transport - In the period 1995-2020 in the Reference Scenario, the meta-model predicts for short distance travel (trip distances up to 160 kilometre) that the number of tours will grow by 5 % (car driver +22 %) and passenger kilometrage will increase by 10 % (car driver +24 %). There will be a much higher growth in the CEEC. - Long distance travel (above 160 kilometres) increases much faster (car, train and especially air) than short distance transport. - Policies that increase the car cost (fuel price increase, congestion and road pricing, parking policies, infrastructure tariff, cost internalisation), will only have limited mode shift effects, especially for business travel. There will be non-marginal reductions of car use, but most of the impact on car kilometrage is due to destination shift. The biggest reduction in car kilometrage is found for ‘other’ purposes (social and recreational traffic) - Policies that lead to an increase in car time (speed limits, speed controls) are relatively effective means of reducing car use (again mainly through destination shift, not mode shift). This does not automatically imply that these are the most desirable polices for passenger transport; this also depends on the other impacts (see the evaluation outcomes below) of the measures than just the impacts on the transport volumes. - Air transport (especially the leisure segment) is very sensitive to the level of the air fares. - Increasing travel time by x % has a larger impact than increasing travel cost by x %. This goes for changes in cost and time for all modes. - Policies that decrease the public transport cost or time (intermodality, interconnectivity, public transport pricing, rail and fluvial interoperability, rail mar ket liberalisation) will have a large impact on kilometrage for the mode itself (or these modes themselves), but a very limited impact on car use. - Elasticities (in absolute values) increase with distance. - None of the policies simulated was really effective in shifting passengers from car driver to the non-car modes. Policies that increase the car cost or time are most effective in reducing car kilometres (mainly through destination shifts, not much modal shift), but considerable increases in car cost or time are needed for this. To be effective in reducing car use, a policy bundle should include elements of a car cost and/or car time increase. At the same time, such a policy could be complemented by policies that make public transport more attractive (also for equity purposes and to provide accessibility to lower income groups). - Segments of the passenger transport market that might be targeted because of their higher than average sensitivity for policy measures are long distance travel and social/recreational travel (and by definition for policies that make car less attractive: car owning-households). The project did not find clear differences between the responsiveness of different income groups, area types and countries. - Policies that make public transport cheaper or faster, such as public transport pricing, intermodality, interconnectivity, new urban public transport, interoperability and rail market liberalisation lead to a reduction in the total internal and external cost of transport. Such policies increase the user benefits from transport, because the public transport users have lower fares or lower time costs, and at the same time (slightly) decrease the external effects. Most policies that make public transport more attractive require substantial investment and/or operation costs. - Promoting housing densification or employment densification leads to a decrease in the external costs, but the increase in internal cost for the travellers dominates the picture. - Cost internalisation, congestion pricing, road pricing, parking policies, harmonisation of rules on speeding, maximum speed limits and fuel price increases all make car more expensive or slower. This leads to a substantial increase in the user cost (the travellers have to pay more or incur higher time costs), which is not outweighted by the reduction in the external cost for society as a whole. Therefore all these policies lead to an increase in the total internal and external cost of transport. Not taken into account here is that the policy measures that increase the cost for transport users also increases government revenues (there is a shift of taxes or charges from the transport users to the government). Moreover, policies that make car less attractive usually have lower investment cost than policies that make public transport more attractive.